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Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players


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This is the fourth in a series of posts i'm going to write for Austria, Denmark, Czech Rep, Germany, Netherlands & Slovakia.

We sure are blessed with scouts in this Forum as i've seen similar posts from lukelufc and insider for this set of rating changes already, I recommend you read these posts also. So no apologies from me if recommendations have been seen before, take it as a compliment if you've posted previously.

The German Bundesliga season has currently played 14 games.

Matthias LANGKAMP, Arminia Bielefeld, 23/83/£3.3M - Rise to 86

Has played 1080 of 1260 minutes, 85.7% of games.

Robert Tesche, Arminia Bielefeld, 20/80/£2.1M - Rise to 83

Has played 637 of 1260 minutes, 50.6% of games.

Christian Lell, Bayern Munchen, 23/85/£4.4M - Rise to 88

Has played 1125 of 1260 minutes, 89.3% of games.

Toni Kroos, Bayern Munchen, 17/73/£214K - Rise to 75

Has played 96 of 1260 minutes, 7.6% of games.

Dimitar RANGELOV, Energie Cottbus, 24/83/£3.2M - Rise to 85

Has played 961 of 1260 minutes, 76.3%, 2 goals.

Stiven Rivic, Energie Cottbus, 22/80/£2.1M - Rise to 83

Has played 407 of 1260 minutes, 32.3% of games.

Christian Pander, FC Schalke, 24/86/£4.8M - Rise to 88

Has played 762 of 1260 minutes, 60.5% of games, 2 goals.

Ivan Rakitic, FC Schalke, 19/85/£4.9M - Rise to 88

Has played 905 of 1260 minutes, 71.8% of games, 2 goals

Jermaine Jones, FC Schalke, 26/82/£2.6M - Rise to 85

Has played 941 of 1260 minutes, 74.7% of games.

Heiko WESTERMANN, FC Schalke, 24/87/£5.7M - Rise to 89

Has played 1002 of 1260 minutes, 79.5% of games.

Eric CHOUPO MOTING, Hamburger SV, 18/74/£370K - Rise to 78

Has played 224 of 1260 minutes, 17.8% of games.

Jerome Boateng, Hamburger SV, 19/83/£3.7M - Rise to 86

Has played 841 of 1260 minutes, 66.7% of games.

Marc Stein, Hansa Rostock, 22/83/£3.4M - Rise to 85

Has played 1053 of 1260 minutes, 83.6% of games, 1 goal.

Tobias RATHGEB, Hansa Rostock, 25/79/£1.5M - Rise to 84

Has played 943 of 1260 minutes, 74.8% of games, 1 goal.

Andre Luiz, Hertha Berlin, 22/80/£2.0M - Rise to 83

Has played 454 of 1260 minutes, 36.0% of games, 1 goal.

Solomon OKORONKWO, Hertha Berlin, 20/80/£2.2M - Rise to 83

Has played 383 of 1260 minutes, 30.4% of games, 4 goals.

Patrick EBERT, Hertha Berlin, Germany, 20/86/£5.5M - Rise to 88

Has played 1074 of 1260 minutes, 85.2% of games, 1 goal.

Andreas Gorlitz, Karlsruhe, 25/83/£3.1M - Rise to 85

Has played 1137 of 1260 minutes, 90.2% of games.

Michael Mutzel, Karlsruhe, 28/82/£2.2M - Rise to 85

Has played 1202 of 1260 minutes, 95.4% of games.

Joshua Kennedy, Nurnberg, 25/80/£1.9M - Rise to 83

Has played 493 of 1260 minutes, 39.1% of games, 1 goal.

Stanislav SESTÁK, VFL Bochum, 24/83/£3.2M - Rise to 87

Has played 1161 of 1260 minutes, 92.1% of games, 6 goals.

Tommy Bechmann, VFL Bochum, 25/83/£3.1M - Rise to 86

Has played 815 of 1260 minutes, 64.7% of games, 5 goals.

Miguel HUGO ALMEIDA, Werder Bremen, 23/87/£5.6M - Rise to 89

Has played 823 of 1260 minutes, 65.3% of games, 7 goals.

Jan Simunek, Wolfsburg, 20/81/£2.6M - Rise to 86

Has played 911 of 1260 minutes, 72.3% of games.

Marcel Schafer, Wolfsburg, 23/84/£3.9M - Rise to 86

Has played 997 of 1260 minutes, 79.1% of games, 1 goal.

Sascha Riether, Wolfsburg, 24/84/£3.7M - Rise to 87

Has played 1155 of 1260 minutes, 91.7% of games.

German Bundlesliga 2

The German Bundesliga 2 has played 14 games.

Jerome Polenz, Alemmania Aachen, 20/75/£547K - Rise to 78

Has played 395 of 990 minutes, 39.9% of games.

Christopher Heimeroth, Borussia Moenchengladbach, 26/80/£1.9M - Rise to 84 Has played 1260 of 1260 minutes, 100.0% of games, Goalkeeper.

Marko Marin, Borussia Moenchengladbach, 18/77/£1.1M - Rise to 80

Has played 772 of 1260 minutes, 61.3% of games.

Nils Petersen, Carl Zeiss Jena, 18/70/£10K - Rise to 75

Has played 139 of 1260 minutes, 12.1% of games, 2 goals.

Eke Uzoma, Freiburg, 18/74/£370K - Rise to 80

Has played 970 of 1260 minutes, 77.0% of games, 1 goal.

Neven Subotic, FSV Mainz, 18/73/£209K - Rise to 81

Has played 1170 of 1260 minutes, 92.9% of games.

Tim Hoogland, FSV Mainz, 22/79/£1.7M - Rise to 83

Has played 1260 of 1260 minutes, 100.0% of games.

Damir VRANCIC, FSV Mainz, 22/75/£517K - Rise to 78

Has played 490 of 1260 minutes, 38.9% of games, 2 goals.

Daniel Endres, Kickers Offenbach, 22/76/£743K - Rise to 79

Has played 810 of 1260 minutes, 64.3% of games, Goalkeeper.

Kevin SCHONEBERG, Koln, 22/77/£1.0M - Rise to 79

Has played 578 of 1260 minutes, 45.9% of games.

René SCHNITZLER, St. Pauli, 22/72/£83K - Rise to 77

Has played 458 of 1260 minutes, 36.3% of games, 1 goal.

Thomas RICHTER, SV Wehen, 27/77/£832K - Rise to 80

Has played 810 of 1260 minutes, 64.3% of games, Goalkeeper.

Marko KOPILAS, SV Wehen, 24/79/£1.6M - Rise to 81

Has played 1224 of 1260 minutes, 97.1% of games, 1 goal.

Maximiliano NICU, SV Wehen, 25/77/£921K - Rise to 81

Has played 1216 of 1260 minutes, 96.5% of games, 5 goals.

Daniel Haas, TFG Hockenheim, 24/77/£951K - Rise to 81

Has played 1260 of 1260 minutes, 100.0% of games, Goalkeeper.

Isaac VORSAH, TFG Hockenheim, 19/72/£91K - Rise to 78

Has played 1064 of 1260 minutes, 84.4% of games, 1 goal.

Matthias Jaissle, TFG Hockenheim, 19/74/£361K - Rise to 79

Has played 900 of 1260 minutes, 71.4% of games, 1 goal.

Lars BENDER, TSV Munchen, 18/79/£1.9M - Rise to 81

Has played 1134 of 1260 minutes, 90.0% of games, 1 goal.

Sven BENDER, TSV Munchen, 18/77/£1.1M - Rise to 79

Has played 611 of 1260 minutes, 48.5% of games, 1 goal.

Daniel Eilhoff, TUS Koblenz, 25/80/£1.9M - Rise to 82

Has played 1260 of 1260 minutes, 100.0% of games, Goalkeeper.

Matthias HEIDRICH, VFL Osnabruck, 29/75/£365K - Rise to 81

Has played 1260 of 1260 minutes, 100.0% of games, 1 goal.

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

Jermaine Jones should go higher than 85. more like 88.

I see where you're coming from (and hope you're right!) he has played a similar amount to Rakitic for Schalke and i'm predicting 88 for him.

We'll have to wait and see, experience suggests that SM will err on the conservative side and will increase Jones slower than some would like, on reflection i'd suggest an 85/86 this time around and maybe an 88 later.

The big factor that would increase his rating to high 80's would be an international appearance but this hasn't happened yet, whereas Rakitic for example has 5 caps for Croatia.

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

Good job Bestpay, youve got most of the players on my bundesliga list i have created, and most likely to have some off my bundesliga 2 section which is currently under construction. But in comparison to mine your ratings seem quite low. Kroos only to 75? Marin only to 80? Vorsah only to 78? Jones to 85?

On mine its Kroos to 80, Marin to 82, Vorsah to 80 and Jones to 87/88 lol

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

I see where you're coming from (and hope you're right!) he has played a similar amount to Rakitic for Schalke and i'm predicting 88 for him.

We'll have to wait and see' date=' experience suggests that SM will err on the conservative side and will increase Jones slower than some would like, on reflection i'd suggest an 85/86 this time around and maybe an 88 later.

The big factor that would increase his rating to high 80's would be an international appearance but this hasn't happened yet, whereas Rakitic for example has 5 caps for Croatia.[/quote']

i agree. but there is one more thing to consider. Even without his appearance for Schalke, Jones was underrated. He was actually captaining a first division team (frankfurt) before he came to Schalke and has about 50 1st division and 50 more 2nd division games. Even though he was injured most of last year, that alone deserves more than 82. Also, he's got the highest ratings from critics (kicker) this season (so far) for any schalke midfielder

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

Good job Bestpay' date=' youve got most of the players on my bundesliga list i have created, and most likely to have some off my bundesliga 2 section which is currently under construction. But in comparison to mine your ratings seem quite low. Kroos only to 75? Marin only to 80? Vorsah only to 78? Jones to 85?

On mine its Kroos to 80, Marin to 82, Vorsah to 80 and Jones to 87/88 lol[/quote']

Indeed Luke you've done a fine job with your lists, i'd give you rep but SM won't let me it says "spread it around first!"

Well the best way I can suggest my ratings are accurate is history, virtually all of my ratings for Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay have been spot on or slightly low.

I think that I forecast slightly low so that SM managers are pleased when the players go even higher, it's better than predicting a value that isn;t achieved that causes managers to feel they've missed out!

Individually:

Kroos - 96 minutes for Bayern Munich and his rating goes from 73 to 80. I can't see this although it has happened in the past. It depends on whether SM factor in UEFA cup and Bayern Munich 2 appearances, Kroos might go to 77 but can't see higher?

Marin - Although Marin starts most games for Borrusia Moenchengladbach he is subbed in most meaning he's played 772 mins of 1260. By my calcaulations for Bundesliga 2 an 80 (maybe 81) should be OK.

Vorsah - 1064 minutes is a lot of onfield time for TFG Hockenheim but from my experience SM regularly choose to an increase a player over 2 rating sessions. This is Vorsah's 1st season in Germany and therefore his inexperience I believe will lead to SM conservatively rating Vorsah this time and leading to a top-up rating the following time (I say this from experience)

Jones - Already said about Jones, it's his 1st season in Bundesliga 1 and his inexperience again I suggest will lead to a conservative rating. His inexperience and lack of internationals will cause a rating of 85(maybe 86) imo but it may go to 87/88.

In some ways I hope my ratings are too low, after all it's my clubs that would benefit!

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

i agree. but there is one more thing to consider. Even without his appearance for Schalke' date=' Jones was underrated. He was actually captaining a first division team (frankfurt) before he came to Schalke and has about 50 1st division and 50 more 2nd division games. Even though he was injured most of last year, that alone deserves more than 82. Also, he's got the highest ratings from critics (kicker) this season (so far) for any schalke midfielder[/quote']

And he was recently called up to the german national team (squad) but had to withdraw due to injury. It certainly speaks volumes about his current 'form' and that he is on the fringe of the national team.

He should be 88 for me, along with Rakitic. ;)

In saying that, great work Bestpay (as usual).

Just 1 criticism, you haven't mentioned any of the top rated (88+) players that are likely to increase. Is that because you mainly just concentrate on scouting sub-86 rated players? :confused:

Nice work in any case.

Herby

p.s. I'm predicting that Luke is closer to the mark with his Kroos - 80 and Marin 82. :D

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

Vorsah's info on wiki:

Isaac Vorsah (born 21 June 1988) is a Ghanaian football player. He currently plays for TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. Isaac Vorsah is one of the biggest defensive talents of international football. 2007 he was voted as "Defender of the Year" in Ghana. In Hoffenheim he plays defensive midfield,in the national team central defender.

He made his national team debut against Senegal, on 2007-08-21.

Not sure how true this is, but i know vorsah didnt actually play for ghana that day. BUT he certainly was called up and as a sub for the game.

I base my player changes on what they should be at the current time and compare them to the rest of the teams ratings, and he is currently the lowest rated player for them, yet has one of the most starts/ time! lol I think he should make at least 80 if sm are being honest

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

And he was recently called up to the german national team (squad) but had to withdraw due to injury. It certainly speaks volumes about his current 'form' and that he is on the fringe of the national team.

He should be 88 for me' date=' along with Rakitic. ;)

In saying that, great work Bestpay (as usual).

Just 1 criticism, you haven't mentioned any of the top rated (88+) players that are likely to increase. Is that because you mainly just concentrate on scouting sub-86 rated players? :confused:

Nice work in any case.

Herby

p.s. I'm predicting that Luke is closer to the mark with his Kroos - 80 and Marin 82. :D[/quote']

Yes I concentrate on lower rated players to be honest, the ones where you can make maximum return on investment.

I don't make a conscientious decision to avoid 85+ players but that's the way it pans out often.

I try to work on the principle that the ratings I give are the lowest a player will rise tom and are normally safe bets .

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

Good opinions :)

KROOS, Toni, Bayern munich 17/73/214k - rise to 81

JONES, Jermaine Schalke 04 26/82/2.5m - rise to 85

CHOUPO MOTING, Eric 18/74/370k - rise to 80

2 new names from me

VANDER, Christian, Werder Bremen 27/80/1.6m - rise to 82

KORNETZKY, Jean-François, Karlsruhe 25/78/1.2m - rise 81

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

I think he should make at least 80 if sm are being honest

This is the problem Luke sometimes, look at Hladyi (who you found) as an example. Many said he should rise to 90, but SM don't do that very often instead they increased to 88 and will probably increase to 90 next time around. But based on Shaktar's stats Hladyi could have been 90 now, isn't he playing better than Lucarelli (91) and Brandao (89)?

My forecasts are what I forecast SM will increase the player too and not what I necessarily think he should be.

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

The only two that I disagree with are Toni Kroos and Andre Luiz. Kroos has gotten a few assists and even scored a game-winner. I know that SM looks at playing time as a key factor in ratings, but I think they will give him a pass because of his obvious quality and production.

Luiz hasn't featured prominently at Hertha Berlin, but combined with his 12 goals in 15 games at Botafogo in Brazil means he should rise higher than a 83.

Great work as always, you help out everyone more than you could ever imagine.

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

Toni Kroos' date=' Bayern Munchen, 17/73/£214K - Rise to 75

Has played 96 of 1260 minutes, 7.6% of games.

Christian Pander, FC Schalke, 24/86/£4.8M - Rise to 88

Has played 762 of 1260 minutes, 60.5% of games, 2 goals.

Jermaine Jones, FC Schalke, 26/82/£2.6M - Rise to 85

Has played 941 of 1260 minutes, 74.7% of games.

Jerome Boateng, Hamburger SV, 19/83/£3.7M - Rise to 86

Has played 841 of 1260 minutes, 66.7% of games.

Solomon OKORONKWO, Hertha Berlin, 20/80/£2.2M - Rise to 83

Has played 383 of 1260 minutes, 30.4% of games, 4 goals.

German Bundlesliga 2

Marko Marin, Borussia Moenchengladbach, 18/77/£1.1M - Rise to 80

Has played 772 of 1260 minutes, 61.3% of games.

Nils Petersen, Carl Zeiss Jena, 18/70/£10K - Rise to 75

Has played 139 of 1260 minutes, 12.1% of games, 2 goals.

Isaac VORSAH, TFG Hockenheim, 19/72/£91K - Rise to 78

Has played 1064 of 1260 minutes, 84.4% of games, 1 goal.

Lars BENDER, TSV Munchen, 18/79/£1.9M - Rise to 81

Has played 1134 of 1260 minutes, 90.0% of games, 1 goal.

I think these need to be re-looked at.

Toni Kroos deserves an 80.

Christian Pander should get at least an 89, he is pure class.

Jermaine Jones should be on par with Rakitic's rise, which is 88, he's played more.

Jerome Boateng should be rated 87, one higher than Vladimir Granat because Boateng has played better in a better league.

Okoronkwo should get an 85 because he has played more than Choupo Moting so I think an 85 is more deserved than an 83.

Marko Marin, like the others said, at least 82.

I know nothing about Nils Petersen but 139 minutes in Bundesliga 2 doesn't warrant a 75, only a 73.

Isaac Vorsah, at least 80, if not 82.

Lars Bender should be around 83 IMO.

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

Marin is good, and will be good, but I think he's being over-rated by those who disagree with Bestpay. He has NO goals in the Bundesliga 2. Just because people have him pegged as the next Schwiensteiger (sp) doesn't mean his rating should reflect that.

At his age, a max rating for 80 seems appropriate to me.

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

Any thoughts on what Stuttgart players will get a rise? I'm thinking

Gomez (91) to a 92 or 93

Hitzelsperger (91) to a 92

Tacsi (88) to an 89

Magnin (90) to a 91

Beck (81) to an 85

Most will stay the same or dip slightly.

Gomez - a 92 looks reasonable

Hitzlsperger - I would say that 91 is OK

Tasci - An increase to 89

Magnin - 91 seems reasonable

Beck - 286 minutes, I think an 83 maximum for Beck, although his appearances are more recent and if he plays all games before German ratings he might go higher

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

This is the problem Luke sometimes' date=' look at Hladkyi (who you found) as an example. Many said he should rise to 90, but SM don't do that very often instead they increased to 88 and will probably increase to 90 next time around. But based on Shaktar's stats Hladkyi could have been 90 now, isn't he playing better than Lucarelli (91) and Brandao (89)?

My forecasts are what I forecast SM will increase the player too and not what I necessarily think he should be.[/quote']

Good point, and im still annoyed Hladkyi didnt go higher lol.

Off topic: Bestpay what do you think Muratori and Ruffier (monaco) will raise to?

Ive got muratori going from 75 to 86/87, but based on the sm climbing ratings which youve pointed out, around 85? And Ruffier 74 to 80 about reasonable?

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

Good point' date=' and im still annoyed Hladkyi didnt go higher lol.

Off topic: Bestpay what do you think Muratori and Ruffier (monaco) will raise to?

Ive got muratori going from [b']75 to 86/87[/b], but based on the sm climbing ratings which youve pointed out, around 85? And Ruffier 74 to 80 about reasonable?

Muratori should be an 85 I think based on appearances, but I think SM will only raise to an 83. So 83 will be my prediction when I post french rating forecasts, I can't remember SM posting such a huge increase from a 75, they tend to increment over several ratings.

Ruffier will rise in my opinion to a 78, but I see why you think he should be an 80.

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

Muratori should be an 85 I think based on appearances' date=' but I think SM will only raise to an 83. So 83 will be my prediction when I post french rating forecasts, I can't remember SM posting such a huge increase from a 75, they tend to increment over several ratings.

Ruffier will rise in my opinion to a 78, but I see why you think he should be an 80.[/quote']

83 would be still really under-rated and the french changes after that he would have to make 86 at least if he continues

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

Indeed Luke you've done a fine job with your lists' date=' i'd give you rep but SM won't let me it says "spread it around first!"

Well the best way I can suggest my ratings are accurate is history, virtually all of my ratings for Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay have been spot on or slightly low.

I think that I forecast slightly low so that SM managers are pleased when the players go even higher, it's better than predicting a value that isn;t achieved that causes managers to feel they've missed out!

Individually:

Kroos - 96 minutes for Bayern Munich and his rating goes from 73 to 80. I can't see this although it has happened in the past. It depends on whether SM factor in UEFA cup and Bayern Munich 2 appearances, Kroos might go to 77 but can't see higher?

Marin - Although Marin starts most games for Borrusia Moenchengladbach he is subbed in most meaning he's played 772 mins of 1260. By my calcaulations for Bundesliga 2 an 80 (maybe 81) should be OK.

Vorsah - 1064 minutes is a lot of onfield time for TFG Hockenheim but from my experience SM regularly choose to an increase a player over 2 rating sessions. This is Vorsah's 1st season in Germany and therefore his inexperience I believe will lead to SM conservatively rating Vorsah this time and leading to a top-up rating the following time (I say this from experience)

Jones - Already said about Jones, it's his 1st season in Bundesliga 1 and his inexperience again I suggest will lead to a conservative rating. His inexperience and lack of internationals will cause a rating of 85(maybe 86) imo but it may go to 87/88.

In some ways I hope my ratings are too low, after all it's my clubs that would benefit![/quote']

Kroos will hit the low 80s for sure I believe, and Jones will defo reach 87 -88.

I also think sestak will him an 88.

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

I would say that Jermaine Jones will go up 4 to 86 - He has been called up to the German squad and is a regular but it is rare for huge rises once you are getting to the late 80's.

True, but it is also rare to find such a prospect, a call-up for the German national side who's only rated 82 and has experience as a bundesliga captain. i think 87

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

True' date=' but it is also rare to find such a prospect, a call-up for the German national side who's only rated 832 and has experience as a bundesliga captain. i think 87[/quote']

832!!! That would make him the best player on the game by miles!!! He needs a decrease!!:D:D

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Re: Bestpay's German rating change forecasts - 46 players

Hi bestpay,

What do you think of Tamas Hajnal 86 AM/RM ?

I think he warrants an 89 or 90.

He's a 26 year old goal scoring midfielder with 13 appearances for Karlsruher in the Bundesliga, 4 goals, 1152 minutes on the pitch plus he's a regular starter for the Hungarian national side.

He was also voted Hungary's Footballer of the Year ahead of Zoltán Gera.

Keith

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