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Sir Rahul

Rahul W's rating predictions

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47 minutes ago, cropper said:

Pogba or v junior + Gomez + 25?m

 

I could get milinkovic savic with the money.

 

Jimmy dunne who plays for hearts has just been called up for Ireland so could be in for a rise

Trio

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2 hours ago, cropper said:

Pogba or v junior + Gomez + 25?m

 

I could get milinkovic savic with the money.

 

Jimmy dunne who plays for hearts has just been called up for Ireland so could be in for a rise

Joe Gomez?

35 minutes ago, Cvilhete said:

Bailly+ Barkley or Toby Alderweireld?

Ooh, tricky. Seems balanced. Heard rumours of Bailly leaving PL though. 

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2 hours ago, cropper said:

Pogba or v junior + Gomez + 25?m

 

I could get milinkovic savic with the money.

 

Jimmy dunne who plays for hearts has just been called up for Ireland so could be in for a rise

If it's Joe Gomez then go for the players + cash and buy SMS or someone else instead.

52 minutes ago, Cvilhete said:

Bailly+ Barkley or Toby Alderweireld?

It'll be a while for Bailly to get anywhere now, if he ever does. I think Barkley needs more than just his recent good spell for me to consider making him a big purchase, so Alderweireld for me. 

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9 hours ago, Middle_Finger said:

De Paul of Udinese OR Kamano of Bordeoux and why?

De Paul is exploding...last season for Udinese for sure. I saw Inter rumours yesterday..and FC Porto in the start of the season. Easy one for me.

5 hours ago, Tharanidharan said:

Paco Alcacer vs Andre Silva vs Maxi Gomez vs Giovanni Simeone? 

Hakimi vs Calabria? 

Tierney vs F. Mendy vs T. Lato? 

Tielemans vs Amiri vs G. Lo Celso? 

ATM: Alcacer, André Silva, Simeone, Maxi

Hakimi

F. Mendy

Lo Celso

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11 hours ago, crvena_zvezda said:

Denis Vavro, Davide Agazzi, Mickael Cuisance and Isaac Mbenza. Any chance they'll rise?

I'm revamping my squad, so they'll probably be sold if they aren't expected to rise.

hmm, keep Cuisance but sell the others

10 hours ago, Middle_Finger said:

De Paul of Udinese OR Kamano of Bordeoux and why?

De Paul

6 hours ago, Tharanidharan said:

Paco Alcacer vs Andre Silva vs Maxi Gomez vs Giovanni Simeone? 

Hakimi vs Calabria? 

Tierney vs F. Mendy vs T. Lato? 

Tielemans vs Amiri vs G. Lo Celso? 

Alcacer ATM, then Silva, Simeone, Gomez

Hakimi

Mendy

Lo Celso

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image.png.a1cada5c1c19c75d6108377c0f14fbbe.png

Mustafi, Bellerin and Xhaka's winter rises, will be judged by SM more on performances etc than minutes in just 11 matches. It's a good start tho. Guendouzi and and Holding look good. Torreira has been catching up in terms of minutes but he also has greatly added to Arsenals recent performance, winning the ball and passing forward more than past arsenal midfielders did.

21 hours ago, hesselink said:

any chance Lacazette +1?

On the cusp as far as minutes go as you see above BUT more importantly I think he looks sharper in front of goals recently. Scored 5goals & 2assists in the League but having said that Aubameyang scored 5 goals in October alone and 7 altogether. Watch closely who looks better in the next few games taking into account Aub is 95 and Lacaz 92. Aub down and Lacaz up?? Special performances or goals could make the difference to Lacaz at the very least.

I think this may be my 3000th post???

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On 10/31/2018 at 11:26 AM, Soccahappy said:

 

I'll try to answer TL & MF:-

My spreadsheet (1000 players+)  has evolved over maybe 6/7years. It basically tries to predict how SM decides who gets rises and who doesn't.

So I kept records of minutes played as percentage of the possible minutes to be played & noticed how much a 90 rated player needed as opposed to a 70 rated player ( and every rating in between). It wasn't exactly 100% correct but it was close.

I then noticed that top clubs Real Madrid etc needed less minutes than say Huddersfield or even Everton (the Pecking Order) and I tried to simulate that too. This improved the predictions again but it is an evolving changing thing like Leicester might be near relegation 1 season & then Top the next, so it's variable by season to season.

I have had a lot of success with it & my 3 clubs now have around 1.8 billion each and hit the maximum around 2.1Billion most seasons at some time b4 I start buying again (251Max). SM miss a lot every review like I know this player should definitely get a rise and they miss him. It almost seems like SM do it purposely to make it harder for such as us to make money buying & selling.

Also minutes for players over 89/90 are less important than performances & winning titles, scoring goals, assists etc. I've recently started trying to add this to my spreadsheet in a small way but it is not as accurate as yet & might not be for years. The higher percentage in the last column is the final predictor about how safe it is, at this particular point in time but doesn't account for SM messing up or just missing some players altogether. Nothing is 100% but I try to improve each season....

I think such as Sir R & many others on here must work in a similar way, I'd be interested in their views but they may not be willing to share their secrets?????

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ID: 27006
On 11/5/2018 at 11:38 AM, Soccahappy said:

Remember, when SM review players over 89 they take more and more account of how impressed they are with performance, goal tallies & national team appearances, compared to minutes. They must have minutes as well of course, but the guide/ spreadsheet is less the higher you go.

image.png.d11954c19081168886532bdbdac32eb3.png

Not particular high Safe ratings but suprised Icardi isn't in the black. Politano looking good tho. I just did this now in response to MF's post.

 

1 hour ago, Floodstreet2017 said:

Great to see loads of discussion etc but don’t think SM decide ratings on percentage of minutes on a spreadsheet etc. Usually just by judging players performances in the time period. There is no other magic formula etc. 

Knowledge is power..

I can partly agree with Floodstreet2017 as this is exactly what I have said myself about players 89/90 and above, see above highlighted. Knowledge is power I agree again. Stats are Power.

But surely u agree that SM need a yardstick for the rest, something they can rely on for the great majority of players? You say it's not minutes??

Also you can see what a difference it's made to one of my clubs in cash terms highlighted above.

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23 minutes ago, Soccahappy said:
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ID: 27006

 

I can partly agree with Floodstreet2017 as this is exactly what I have said myself about players 89/90 and above, see above highlighted. Knowledge is power I agree again. Stats are Power.

But surely u agree that SM need a yardstick for the rest, something they can rely on for the great majority of players? You say it's not minutes??

Also you can see what a difference it's made to one of my clubs in cash terms highlighted above.

You're totally right mate. Obviously the majority or rating changes are totally stats-based. If anybody really thinks that SM have scouts all over the world, checking how each and every player is performing game by game, then they haven't yet realised how little they care about this game nowadays.

Like you say, naturally there are more factors than just apps/minutes etc that come in to play for the top end players but for the vast majority, it's the basic stats that make the big differences when it comes to ratings changes.

Keep doing what you're doing pal, sure there are loads of people in the forum who are finding your research very useful :)

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2 hours ago, Floodstreet2017 said:

Great to see loads of discussion etc but don’t think SM decide ratings on percentage of minutes on a spreadsheet etc. Usually just by judging players performances in the time period. There is no other magic formula etc. 

Knowledge is power..

Lol there'll always be one, from 88 and below minutes will be the deciding factor for who will rise a few goals and assists here in there will determine how high they rise, from 89 and above the focus will be more on the stats and performances/ strength of league and competition but having a spreadsheet compiled with years of data is probably more consistent than Sms system itself with their ratings being very often farcical 

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