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Rahul W's rating predictions


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Hi all, As you have seen, I have not really been active over the past few months other than updating my preds. It's just been me phasing out of the forum. Now that the reviews are done, I can say

Just noticed this thread has crossed 1 million views, 23k odd replies, 930 pages.  I know this is 3 and a half years old but I never intended for this to monopolise the forum back then (I would h

Page 200- didn't think we'd get here when I started this casually- thanks all

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22 minutes ago, Terrythevillan said:

Are lower leagues getting updated now? Wondering if Brentford players are being looked at (Watkins!). Thanks

It's difficult to say for sure, but the Championship review has been in January in 2019 and 2020 so you probably have a few months to wait.

Edit: January 2020 but now I look at 2019 again it was sometime between January and March, but I'm not sure exactly when.

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26 minutes ago, Terrythevillan said:

Are lower leagues getting updated now? Wondering if Brentford players are being looked at (Watkins!). Thanks

Potentially, currently doing Bundesliga 2 wouldn’t be surprised if they do the second tier in the other top 4/5 countries.

Either way Watkins could rise to 86 if he gets a move to the EPL that also applies to Benrahma. Both outstanding for Brentford last season.

7 minutes ago, lemontrees said:

It's difficult to say for sure, but the Championship review has been in January in 2019 and 2020 so you probably have a few months to wait.

Edit: January 2020 but now I look at 2019 again it was sometime between January and March, but I'm not sure exactly when.

Did they do Bundesliga 2 the end of 2019, they are currently doing that league now so maybe they will do the Championship, Serie B and Spanish second division.

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Hello everybody! It is not the kind of message I usually post here, and I don't want it to be inopportune, so please ask me to remove it, if that is the case.

I am managing a team in a quite competitive game world and the GW owner - which is a friend - asked me to look for new pals to join it. There is no age, squad or rating cap, but it is a medium-long term challenge since there are already well-established and very good managers over there. The community is very active, and managers like to deal with each other. We are looking for new managers who want to join and be positive members of our league. PM for the details, I will send you the GW ID.

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12 hours ago, TrickyDave said:

Some good chat about oyarzabal on here the other day. Would you opt for him or r. neves if you had the choice? 

Neves

10 hours ago, The Finisher said:

Keep Kane or buy Lewandowski?

Lew at this time, at least a couple of seasons at the Top, left. If U require more than 3 seasons then Kane.

2 hours ago, topofthebilly said:

Billy Gilmour apparently already playing again after his injury (seems rather quick ?)  . 
He has already started 1 match and got subbed on in another match (where kanté took an injury) .

But it will be hard for him to keep playing once everyone is back from injury , and on top of that Havertz is coming in .

I was thinking of bidding on him in my gameworld but he will struggle to get playtime for Chelsea I'm afraid .

 

What do you guys think .

Either Lampard will find games for him or will loan him out. He will be slowed a little (Probably like Foden slowly, rather than Mount's breakout - Quickly) BUT when someone is this good it will happen eventually and for how long will he be available??)

2 hours ago, Kierans91 said:

Out of curiosity how do you calculate your percentages?

Percentages show seem very specific for example Curtis Jones 41.4%

🙂

Personally I think he could still play, everyone who has been bought in midfield for Chelsea are attacking midfielders i.e Havertz and Ziyech.

Loan would also be a good option like Milanista said but for me there isn’t much change from the previous yeah.

His competition is Kante, Kovacic, Jorginho (could be leaving) Bate, Bakayoko (also leaving) anyone else I forgot.

Nothing much changed from last season just if Lampard still wants to give him a chance.

It would be easier for you to guess what's NOT in there than me remember all of them at one time, Kieran. It is the evolution of 8 or 9 maybe 10years of changes. The Columns now span from A to AP which I think is 42 columns and the rows over 3,000 now, actually 3,437 ATM, just checked).

One important one U might not think of is the "Eliteness" of a club and how well it's playing towards their historic Elite Level at any moment in time. It's similar to position in the League at any one time but a bit more stable than the latter. Take ManU outside the top 5 and playing erratically, poor morale and performances, then Bruno comes along and ManU are transformed. That Elite rating is increasing at least weekly as even Pogba starts to perform and heads back upwards quickly towards their historic elite level. Same with Barcelona progressing downwards . All clubs have an Elite historic rating to perform towards, think of Aston Villa in the championship, Wolves as well and nowSheffield U now! 

Many years ago I noticed a player at Arsenal say had the same minutes, goals, assists and club position similar to one at say Wigan and the player at Arsenal would get a +4 to 86 and Wigan player would stay at 82 and hundreds more similar contrasts even between clubs that were only slightly different in Eliteness. A player getting 2,000 minutes at a BIG club would get more of a rise than 3,420minutes at a lower one.

Enough I think u get the picture of everything evolving over many years to as close to the way SM do reviews as is possible (the 0%line is changed for every club every Review) BUT Also every drop or rise in position in the League EVERY MATCH if it is required. It does take me huge amounts of time to track changes and then change the spreadsheet every match. Cheers Socca 😀

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26 minutes ago, Kierans91 said:

Potentially, currently doing Bundesliga 2 wouldn’t be surprised if they do the second tier in the other top 4/5 countries.

Either way Watkins could rise to 86 if he gets a move to the EPL that also applies to Benrahma. Both outstanding for Brentford last season.

Did they do Bundesliga 2 the end of 2019, they are currently doing that league now so maybe they will do the Championship, Serie B and Spanish second division.

I don't have Bundesliga 2 anywhere in my records apart from this one that's happening now, but I took a break from the game between June and November last year. 

21 minutes ago, Sir Rahul said:

Championship, League 1 and 2 are done separately from Bundesliga 2, Segunda, Ligue 2, Serie B, I assume they're doing these four now

Okay, that's interesting. At least they are getting through the reviews with some gusto now, and I probably have a few young players from those leagues in my squads.

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23 minutes ago, Soccahappy said:

Neves

Lew at this time, at least a couple of seasons at the Top, left. If U require more than 3 seasons then Kane.

Either Lampard will find games for him or will loan him out. He will be slowed a little (Probably like Foden slowly, rather than Mount's breakout - Quickly) BUT when someone is this good it will happen eventually and for how long will he be available??)

It would be easier for you to guess what's NOT in there than me remember all of them at one time, Kieran. It is the evolution of 8 or 9 maybe 10years of changes. The Columns now span from A to AP which I think is 42 columns and the rows over 3,000 now, actually 3,437 ATM, just checked).

One important one U might not think of is the "Eliteness" of a club and how well it's playing towards their historic Elite Level at any moment in time. It's similar to position in the League at any one time but a bit more stable than the latter. Take ManU outside the top 5 and playing erratically, poor morale and performances, then Bruno comes along and ManU are transformed. That Elite rating is increasing at least weekly as even Pogba starts to perform and heads back upwards quickly towards their historic elite level. Same with Barcelona progressing downwards . All clubs have an Elite historic rating to perform towards, think of Aston Villa in the championship, Wolves as well and nowSheffield U now! 

Many years ago I noticed a player at Arsenal say had the same minutes, goals, assists and club position similar to one at say Wigan and the player at Arsenal would get a +4 to 86 and Wigan player would stay at 82 and hundreds more similar contrasts even between clubs that were only slightly different in Eliteness. A player getting 2,000 minutes at a BIG club would get more of a rise than 3,420minutes at a lower one.

Enough I think u get the picture of everything evolving over many years to as close to the way SM do reviews as is possible (the 0%line is changed for every club every Review) BUT Also every drop or rise in position in the League EVERY MATCH if it is required. It does take me huge amounts of time to track changes and then change the spreadsheet every match. Cheers Socca 😀

Thank you for the in depth response Socca, I understand a lot more now.

Ive always been meaning to ask you about the percentages because it seems very accurate.

22 minutes ago, lemontrees said:

I don't have Bundesliga 2 anywhere in my records apart from this one that's happening now, but I took a break from the game between June and November last year. 

Okay, that's interesting. At least they are getting through the reviews with some gusto now, and I probably have a few young players from those leagues in my squads.

Having looked at most teams in Bundesliga 2 the reviews of all the players seem up and down so I couldn’t pin point when Bundesliga 2 was last reviewed.

I think they will clear up Spanish, English and Italian second tier also.

Another considerably amount of time till we get to see Russia, Ukraine, USA etc

Maybe the year 2030 we will get to see these leagues reviewed.

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Previous tables on pages 777, 779, 780, 781, 782, 783, 784.785,786,787, 788, 789, 790, 791,792,793, 794,795,796,797,798,799,800,801,803,804,805.806,807,808,810,811,812,813,814.816,817,818,819,821,822,823,824,825,8826,827,828,829,830,831.832,833,834,835.836,837,839,841,842,844,845,855,856,857.860,864,866, 867.868,871,872,873,875,876,877,878,880,914,955,988. 1003,1008,1016, 1023.1026,1030, 1032,1042, 1045, 1047, 1055 , 1057, 1060, 1063, 1065, 1068, 1082, 1083, 1085, 1087, 1089, 1092, 1095, 1098, 1103,1106,1109,1118 ,1121, 1124 1126, 1132, 1138, 1141, 1147, 1152, 1153, 1155, 1157, 1158,1159 , 1160 , 1161,1163, 1165, 1169,1174, 1175 Be careful of the Reddish boxes where the higher rated players are more inclined towards performances rather than stats.

Please click on zoom to 125% or 150% and it's monster size and can be read Immediately. Left hand side of screen disappears entirely, great!

Minutes will vary game by game and league position also helps a lot. Anything over 0% indicates likely riser, higher the better/safer. Negative percentages don't predict a drop just less chances of a rise. The more games played the more accurate the predictions should be.

I am concentrating mainly on Younger under 89 rated players as these are more consistent risers and more profitable, Goal keepers are dealt with by SM in a completely different way, which is why I mostly also ignore Gk's 

Unfortunately I couldn't fit the whole thing into Postimage or should I say for some reason it wouldn't accept it this time. So I've reduced it to a smaller Part 1 and will try postimage again after Lunch. I've ammended it slightly also for it to fit. Here goes a bit of Analysis:-

Pt1-Italy-Best7-Miss1.png

It's all about finding the best opportunities in the spreadsheet selections. Really, it's far from "Rocket Science" just common sense actually. If U bought only above 14% (about 20 purchased players) 19 would profit U to the tune of £43.79 million with only 1 None riser ie SM missed only one Antonucci who should have risen as well.

If u bought every player above 10% In the Italian predictions this wasn't anywhere near as good but U would still  have profited slightly more even with another 6 None risers at £48.53 million. Bear in mind the None risers could be sold at 10weeks from purchase with an additional markup of 10%+ ie a £20million purchase could sell at upwards of £22million.

I try to select younger players because their profit margins are much larger. I do nowadays reluctantly include older players and GK's as it was requested I add this player and that player who were likely risers. Yes wages have to be paid for 10weeks / 20 wage packets but if u stick to younger players this is clearly much more profitable, even after wages.

Ok Part 2 of Italy: After Lunch Cheers Socca😀

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4 hours ago, Lango said:

Thanks Keiran

Aouar, bentancur, pogba, valverde, de beek and partey

 

I need to pick 2 of these?? Who would be your 1st and 2nd pick?

 

 

1: Valverde 2: Pogba

3 hours ago, topofthebilly said:

Really seems like Leeds has agreed to buy Joško GVARDIOL on a 20M euro fee .

He is currently 73 rated in SW .
Where do you guys check Kroation league stats ?
I can only see he started 9 games last season , and that's it .

So how to predict his rise after the transfer has been done ?

https://throughitalltogether.sbnation.com/2020/9/6/21424891/leeds-united-reportedly-agree-josko-gvardiol-deal-from-dinamo-zagreb-croatia

 

Chances seem high that he will be loaned back to Dynamo . I think it is too early to buy him in game or .. ?

https://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2020/09/06/report-rb-leipzig-make-move-to-hijack-leeds-bid-for-josko-gvardiol/

Grateful have been following this potential purchase topofthebilly, but hadn't as yet seen this one. thanks mate 😀

3 hours ago, Kierans91 said:

I usually go on soccerway for all stats, last season he played 11 times in the league 9 starts 2 sub appearances (829 minutes) he has also featured in the UCL qualifiers for Dinamo Zagreb this season.

Me too, find the video's etc continually thrown at u  very annoying BUT the best stats shown in the best way.

3 hours ago, Sir Rahul said:

Just caught up on everything here, flew back to UK yesterday for university :) 

You were missed, Sir! Good to have u back.... onward and ahead... Full steam ...No time for swatting please!

1 hour ago, Kierans91 said:

Thank you for the in depth response Socca, I understand a lot more now.

Ive always been meaning to ask you about the percentages because it seems very accurate.

 

Thank you Kieran. Yes it turned out much better than I expected and finally after many years I brought it to the Forum with a mixed response at first, back then.

The 2nd Review in the forum I think was a breakthrough and then Predicting risers ie +3 + 4 etc in the formula's was another rather than just the safety %. I'm not satisfied with the predictions, it's just so difficult for formulas to take in such a vast spectrum I do have to change some silly ones. 

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3 hours ago, lemontrees said:

I don't have Bundesliga 2 anywhere in my records apart from this one that's happening now, but I took a break from the game between June and November last year. 

Okay, that's interesting. At least they are getting through the reviews with some gusto now, and I probably have a few young players from those leagues in my squads.

Yeah, I think they skipped those four second tier leagues last year for some reason.

I'm glad they're doing them now as they are some high rated players that have to drop.

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Previous tables on pages 777, 779, 780, 781, 782, 783, 784.785,786,787, 788, 789, 790, 791,792,793, 794,795,796,797,798,799,800,801,803,804,805.806,807,808,810,811,812,813,814.816,817,818,819,821,822,823,824,825,8826,827,828,829,830,831.832,833,834,835.836,837,839,841,842,844,845,855,856,857.860,864,866, 867.868,871,872,873,875,876,877,878,880,914,955,988. 1003,1008,1016, 1023.1026,1030, 1032,1042, 1045, 1047, 1055 , 1057, 1060, 1063, 1065, 1068, 1082, 1083, 1085, 1087, 1089, 1092, 1095, 1098, 1103,1106,1109,1118 ,1121, 1124 1126, 1132, 1138, 1141, 1147, 1152, 1153, 1155, 1157, 1158,1159 , 1160 , 1161,1163, 1165, 1169, 1174,1175,  Be careful of the Reddish boxes where the higher rated players are more inclined towards performances rather than stats.

Please click on zoom to 125% or 150% and it's monster size and can be read Immediately. Left hand side of screen disappears entirely, great!

Minutes will vary game by game and league position also helps a lot. Anything over 0% indicates likely riser, higher the better/safer. Negative percentages don't predict a drop just less chances of a rise. The more games played the more accurate the predictions should be.

I am concentrating mainly on Younger under 89 rated players as these are more consistent risers and more profitable, Goal keepers are dealt with by SM in a completely different way, which is why I mostly also ignore Gk's 

Pt2-Best-Italypt2.png

Pt2:  Okay from Pt 1 we now go to everything over 5% which makes a profit of £99.53 Million and remarkably only another 3 misses between Over 10% and Over 5%. Then from 0% to 5%  £10.8m profit but 8 misses! It's obvious now why I call the 0%rating the safety rating.

We can see if this is similar with the Premiership results in the coming days or so. Sometimes I don't imagine anybody doesn't understand the principles of the spreadsheet and how it works as I have written about this from time to time. It's a question of time  available because I never catch up with the latest thing I want to do. BUT today I have mentioned in various posts a number of things which I can touch on again when I do The Premiership, Best Of.... 

Hope it's been of interest and thank u again for all your support,  one and all, Cheers Socca😀 

 

 

Edited by Soccahappy
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I’m selling my Milner as I’m reducing the squad age. I already have Boateng/Hateboer who can play as first choice rb. While looking at the options for a young rb with high potential, these players struck me. Could you please help me with a choice as I can only get one? (1/2 backup options will also be appreciated as it is a really competitive GW)

Zeki Celik

Giovanni Di Lorenzo

Jonny Otto

Mitchell Weiser

Andrea Conti

Furtado William

Noussair Mazraoui

Ps:- I personally feel Zeki Celik is the best option. But you people are the experts. So I believe your suggestion will be better.

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3 minutes ago, Akhil said:

I’m selling my Milner as I’m reducing the squad age. I already have Boateng/Hateboer who can play as first choice rb. While looking at the options for a young rb with high potential, these players struck me. Could you please help me with a choice as I can only get one? (1/2 backup options will also be appreciated as it is a really competitive GW)

Zeki Celik

Giovanni Di Lorenzo

Jonny Otto

Mitchell Weiser

Andrea Conti

Furtado William

Noussair Mazraoui

Ps:- I personally feel Zeki Celik is the best option. But you people are the experts. So I believe your suggestion will be better.

Yes I feel Celik is the best choice. 

Plays for a good side, young . I feel he had a chance of 89 last review but didn't get it . They will be in Europe group stages 

I think the others are good but most have hit their cap 

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Transfer talk...

Milos Vulic (82) has moved from Red Star Belgrade to Crotone, and could be someone who rises to 85 over next season.

Fabio Silva (78) has moved to Wolves for big bucks as we all know, could be on for a +2/+4 to 80/82 in the coming weeks.

Ritsu Doan (86) has moved to Arminia Bielefeld on loan, not particularly ratings related but quite an intriguing move.

Grady Diangana (83) moved to West Brom permanently, if he keeps his numbers up, he could easily be 86/87 by end of next season.

Darwin Nunez (82) moved to Benfica for big money, one to keep an eye out for.

Brahim Diaz (83) moved to Milan on loan, another intriguing move.

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36 minutes ago, dutza90 said:

Hey guys. There is a draft in my league and I might be able to chose between Conor Coady or Robin Koch. Any opinions?! 

Coady is the safe option, Koch's rating is dependent on Leeds 

15 minutes ago, Akhil said:

I’m selling my Milner as I’m reducing the squad age. I already have Boateng/Hateboer who can play as first choice rb. While looking at the options for a young rb with high potential, these players struck me. Could you please help me with a choice as I can only get one? (1/2 backup options will also be appreciated as it is a really competitive GW)

Zeki Celik

Giovanni Di Lorenzo

Jonny Otto

Mitchell Weiser

Andrea Conti

Furtado William

Noussair Mazraoui

Ps:- I personally feel Zeki Celik is the best option. But you people are the experts. So I believe your suggestion will be better.

Celik

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17 minutes ago, Akhil said:

I’m selling my Milner as I’m reducing the squad age. I already have Boateng/Hateboer who can play as first choice rb. While looking at the options for a young rb with high potential, these players struck me. Could you please help me with a choice as I can only get one? (1/2 backup options will also be appreciated as it is a really competitive GW)

Zeki Celik

Giovanni Di Lorenzo

Jonny Otto

Mitchell Weiser

Andrea Conti

Furtado William

Noussair Mazraoui

Ps:- I personally feel Zeki Celik is the best option. But you people are the experts. So I believe your suggestion will be better.

They are all much of a muchness to my mind. Logic would say why not an 89 then Otto? Weiser?

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I'm in a custom gameworld with 1 mate. Just us two 

If I sold Valverde for 34-36 million. What replacement should I get ? 

All high rated players are still available due to our personal rules of only buying a player who is +2 ratings higher than our weakest position. 

 Goretzka for 28 million ? 

 

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2 hours ago, dutza90 said:

Hey guys. There is a draft in my league and I might be able to chose between Conor Coady or Robin Koch. Any opinions?! 

Coady is the safe option, in a stable team who seem to improve and add well to their squad each year.

I think Leeds will do well this season but will eventually finish below Wolves.

2 hours ago, Akhil said:

I’m selling my Milner as I’m reducing the squad age. I already have Boateng/Hateboer who can play as first choice rb. While looking at the options for a young rb with high potential, these players struck me. Could you please help me with a choice as I can only get one? (1/2 backup options will also be appreciated as it is a really competitive GW)

Zeki Celik

Giovanni Di Lorenzo

Jonny Otto

Mitchell Weiser

Andrea Conti

Furtado William

Noussair Mazraoui

Ps:- I personally feel Zeki Celik is the best option. But you people are the experts. So I believe your suggestion will be better.

Celik

Di Lorenzo is another good option at Napoli but his rating will be dependent mainly on Napoli’s season 

1 hour ago, RieceM96 said:

I'm in a custom gameworld with 1 mate. Just us two 

If I sold Valverde for 34-36 million. What replacement should I get ? 

All high rated players are still available due to our personal rules of only buying a player who is +2 ratings higher than our weakest position. 

 Goretzka for 28 million ? 

 

Yeah great option, looking like a first choice player alongside Kimmich next season for the best team in Europe.

Came on leaps and bounds this season not only technically but Physically and has earned praise from the likes of Rummenigge calling him the best box to box midfielder in the world.

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Isn't even on the database!

EDIT: Never mind, he is. Vitor Ferreira, 78 rated.

3 hours ago, RieceM96 said:

I'm in a custom gameworld with 1 mate. Just us two 

If I sold Valverde for 34-36 million. What replacement should I get ? 

All high rated players are still available due to our personal rules of only buying a player who is +2 ratings higher than our weakest position. 

 Goretzka for 28 million ? 

That's good

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Not sure if Emil Roback has already been mentioned on here before:

https://en.soccerwiki.org/player.php?pid=104894

He's certainly worth picking, has been doing well in the recent Milan friendlies - but of course he's still very raw.

I would love to see him and the other youngsters feature for Milan (sometime) this coming season as well. 🙂

Style of play = Young T. Henry (one can dream) that he becomes 3/4 of a player.  

P.S. I seem to run out of reactions so quickly. 😠

Maybe its something Invision could update/increase for us, actually on second 💭 thoughts..... 😀

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