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Rahul W's rating predictions


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Hi all, As you have seen, I have not really been active over the past few months other than updating my preds. It's just been me phasing out of the forum. Now that the reviews are done, I can say

Just noticed this thread has crossed 1 million views, 23k odd replies, 930 pages.  I know this is 3 and a half years old but I never intended for this to monopolise the forum back then (I would h

Page 200- didn't think we'd get here when I started this casually- thanks all

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5 hours ago, d5v1L said:

1. Any chance of Anthony modeste to 91 in summer ?
2. Hugo lloris OR  Modeste + Hirving Lozano ?
(my current gk is ederson moraes)

Thanks

Answered this on the other thread

4 hours ago, jlammy said:

Dani Carvajal 93? Has been titanic on the Madrid right as of late (see performances vs. Bayern), makes Danilo seem like a schoolboy, and quite possibly the best RB in the world. 

50/50

2 hours ago, hoochy koochy said:

end of season is nearing - lots of deals to think about - predictions for next review please;

Meyer stay

Mangala stay

Wilshere -1 to 90

Diego Costa stay

Douglas Costa stay

Luke Shaw stay

Lucas Moura stay

Alexis Sanchez stay

Thomas Muller stay

 

Thanks

 

 

 

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Oblak 
Meret
Cancelo
Fosu-Mensah
Joao Pedro (Palmerias)
Shaw
Amavi
Caricol 
Marquinhos
M Diakhaby 
Rugani
Rudiger
Thiago
Gagliardini
M Llorente 
Khedira
R Sanches
Gerson
Kimmich
Milinkovic-Savic
Samper
Dybala 
Guedes
Neymar
Hazard 
Gnabry
Cabellos
M Kean
Ponce
Alena
Nathan
L Felipe
Scholl
Ruiz
Martinez
Muric
Verde
Bahlouli
Zidane
Vezo
Faes
Grassi
Kamara
Nili
Arana
Basacokoglu
Souici
Zimmermann 
Pellegri 
EsitiEsiti
 
Thoughts on those Rahul for the upcoming review?
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Hi, I want to invest in a cheap defender who could go all the way to 90+.
I have shortlifted a few, can you please tell which one should i go for.
(NOTE: most hyped players are not available, like sarr, diakhaby, diop, kimpembe, caldara etc)

Bensebainy
Milan Skriniar
Caetano Samir

Other than these if there is a better option, plz let me know. Thanks a lot

 

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4 hours ago, tupac_healy said:
Oblak stay
Meret +5 to 83
Cancelo stay
Fosu-Mensah stay
Joao Pedro (Palmerias) review over
Shaw stay
Amavi stay
Caricol +3 to 85
Marquinhos stay
M Diakhaby +5 to 85
Rugani stay
Rudiger +1 to 90
Thiago +1 to 93
Gagliardini +4 to 87
M Llorente +1 to 86
Khedira stay
R Sanches stay
Gerson stay
Kimmich stay
Milinkovic-Savic +1 to 89
Samper +1 to 86
Dybala +1 to 92 
Guedes +2 to 87
Neymar stay
Hazard stay 
Gnabry +1 to 87
Cabellos +1 to 87
M Kean +1 to 77
Ponce +2 to 84
Alena stay
Nathan stay
L Felipe who?
Scholl stay
Ruiz who?
Martinez who?
Muric +1 to 78
Verde stay
Bahlouli stay
Zidane stay
Vezo +1 to 85
Faes stay
Grassi +1 to 83
Kamara stay
Nili stay
Arana review over
Basacokoglu +1 to 86
Souici stay
Zimmermann who?
Pellegri stay
Esiti +4 to 84
 
Thoughts on those Rahul for the upcoming review?

 

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On 03/04/2017 at 10:49 PM, ombarcagunners said:

Yerry Mina stays?

88 it is

On 03/04/2017 at 11:26 AM, Sir Rahul said:

BRAZIL SÉRIE A

Palmeiras:

Silvestre +5 to 75- +3 to 73

Arouca -2 to 86- -1 to 87

Sales +2 to 80- nope

Erik Lima +2 to 84- +3 to 85

Thiago Martins +3 to 83- +2 to 82

Prass +1 to 86- nope

Dracena +1 to 86- nope

Thiago Santos +3 to 85- +2 to 84

Jailson +2 to 85- nope

Guedes +4 to 84- +5 to 85

Moises +1 to 86- +2 to 87

Tche Tche +3 to 86- yes

Hugo +1 to 87- yes

Bastos -1 to 87- yes

Melo -1 to 87- nope

Borja +1 to 86- +2 to 87

Carlos +1 to 83- yes

Veiga +7 to 82- yes

Keno +1 to 84- +2 to 85

 

Santos:

Renato +1 to 86- nope

Vanderlei +1 to 86- yes

Ferraz +1 to 86- yes

Zeca +1 to 86- +2 to 87

Maia +3 to 86- yes

Bueno +4 to 84- +5 to 85

Felipe +4 to 84- +3 to 83

Henrique +1 to 86- yes

Copete +2 to 86- yes

Mota +5 to 83- +2 to 80

Cittadini +4 to 82- yes

Rodrigao +7 to 80- yes

Caju +2 to 80- nope

 

Flamengo:

Arao +4 to 86- yes

Araujo +1 to 86- nope

Muralha +2 to 86- yes

Jorge +2 to 85- nope

Vaz +4 to 84- +3 to 83

Para +1 to 86- nope

Guerrero -1 to 88- nope

Rodinei +1 to 85- nope

Gabriel +1 to 85- nope

Vizeu +3 to 83- yes

Damiao -1 to 87- yes

Leo Duarte +3 to 80- nope

 

Atletico Mineiro:

Cesar +4 to 84- +3 to 83

Clayton +1 to 86- yes

Gabriel +3 to 83- +2 to 82

Elias -2 to 87- nope

Rocha -1 to 87- nope

Candido +3 to 83- nope

Otero +1 to 83- +3 to 85

Adilson -1 to 85- nope

Eduardo -1 to 86- nope

Santana -1 to 85- nope

Jesiel +5 to 75- yes

Yago +1 to 76- yes

 

Botafago:

Bruno Silva +2 to 85- nope

Emerson +6 to 83- +5 to 82

Lindoso +5 to 83- yes

Luis +3 to 83- yes

Emerson +2 to 84- nope

Foncesca +3 to 83- +2 to 82

Airton +1 to 84- nope

Carli +3 to 83- yes

Sassa +4 to 84- +3 to 83

Pimpao +2 to 82- +3 to 83

Fernandes +3 to 83- +2 to 82

Jefferson -2 to 86- nope

Montillo -1 to 87- yes

Leandrinho +2 to 80- yes

Roger +1 to 84- nope

 

Atletico Paranaense:

Otavio +2 to 86- +1 to 85

Heleno +2 to 86- yes

Pablo +7 to 85- +5 to 83

Leo +2 to 85- nope

Andre +1 to 85- yes

Sidcley +2 to 85- yes

Wanderson +5 to 83- +2 to 80

Santos +3 to 80- nope

Marcao +3 to 78- nope

Pedro +2 to 75- nope

Jonathan -1 to 86- yes

Eduardo -1 to 86- yes

 

Corinthians:

M. Gabriel +1 to 86- nope

Balbuena +2 to 85- yes

Rodriguinho +3 to 85- +4 to 86

A. Romero +2 to 86- +1 to 85

Walter +2 to 85- nope

Yago +5 to 83- nope

Henrique +6 to 82- +2 to 78

Camacho +4 to 83- +3 to 82

Wilson +1 to 84- nope

Arana +2 to 82- yes

Willians -1 to 86- nope

G. Henrique +2 to 80

Principe +4 to 77- yes

Maycon +5 to 80- +7 to 82

 

Ponte Preta:

Vitor +1 to 85- nope

Ferreira +1 to 84- nope

Clayton +5 to 83- yes

Paraiba +1 to 83- yes

Pottker +2 to 85- yes

Aranha +3 to 83- +2 to 82

Carlos +5 to 83- +4 to 82

Jefferson +5 to 82- +3 to 80

Jesus +5 to 80- +7 to 82

Ravanelli +3 to 78- +5 to 80

Joao -1 to 83- nope

Elton -1 to 83- nope

Artur Batista +3 to 83- +2 to 82

 

Gremio:

Douglas +1 to 86- nope

Edilson +1 to 85- yes

Jailson +10 to 80- +12 to 82

Everton +2 to 84- yes

Rocha +1 to 84- yes

Thyere +3 to 80- +1 to 78

Grassi +2 to 80- nope

Iago +6 to 76- yes

Kaio +6 to 76- +7 to 77

Barrios -1 to 86- nope

Leo Moura +2 to 83- nope

Rodrigo +1 to 86- nope

 

Sao Paulo:

Denis +2 to 86- nope

Thiago Mendes +1 to 86- yes

Kelvin +1 to 86- nope

Cueva +1 to 86- yes

Chavez +2 to 86- yes

Schmidt +3 to 85- yes

Hudson +1 to 86- nope

Reis +3 to 83- nope

Vojnovic +3 to 80- +5 to 82

Araujo +6 to 76- +8 to 78

Ytalo +1 to 83- nope

Sidao +7 to 83- +6 to 82

Jucilei -1 to 87- nope

 

Chapecoense:

Bruno +3 to 76- yes

Rossi +2 to 75- +5 to 78

Nadson +1 to 76- +3 to 78

Niltinho +1 to 76- +3 to 78

Dodo +2 to 80- +4 to 82

 

Cruzeiro:

Neilton +3 to 85- +1 to 83

Barbosa +2 to 84- +1 to 83

Arrascaeta +1 to 87- +2 to 88

Robinho +1 to 87- nope

Edimar +2 to 85- nope

Cabral +1 to 86- nope

Rafael +6 to 84- +4 to 82

Bryan +5 to 83- +4 to 82

Bruno Ramires +5 to 83- +2 to 80

Alisson +2 to 84- +3 to 85

Ezequiel +4 to 82- yes

Dede -2 to 86- nope

Neves -2 to 86- nope

Willians -1 to 86- nope

Correia +2 to 82- yes

 

Fluminense:

Scarpa +1 to 86- +2 to 87

Wellington Silva +2 to 85- nope

Wellington Silva +1 to 85 (formerly of Arsenal)- yes

Douglas +5 to 83- +4 to 82

Marcos Junior +2 to 85- yes

Richarlison +3 to 83- +2 to 82

Cesar +1 to 83- nope

Marquinho -1 to 84- -2 to 83

Osvaldo -1 to 86- nope

Danilinho -1 to 84- nope

Michael Silva +3 to 80- +5 to 82

 

Sport Recife:

Magrao +2 to 84- +1 to 83

Xavier +1 to 85- nope

Ferraz +1 to 84- nope

Everton Felipe +7 to 82- yes

Rogerio +1 to 84- yes

Durval +1 to 84- nope

Ronaldo Alves +1 to 84- nope

Ronaldo +3 to 78- yes

 

Coritiba:

Wilson +1 to 84- nope

Juninho +2 to 84- +1 to 83

Paulo +1 to 84- nope

Dodo +5 to 82- yes

Maia +2 to 82- nope

Anderson -1 to 85- nope

 

Internacional:

Alemao +4 to 82

Neris +2 to 82

William +1 to 86

Dourado +1 to 86

Ferrareis +5 to 82

Anselmo +1 to 84

Aylon +2 to 82

Andrigo +4 to 82

Lomba -2 to 83

Eduardo +1 to 78

D'Alessandro -1 to 86

Rever -1 to 86

Carlinhos -1 to 85

Uendel +1 to 86

 

Figueirense:

Alves +1 to 83

Ferrugem +2 to 82

Ermel +2 to 78

Thiago Rodrigues +4 to 78

Matheusinho +1 to 76

 

Santa Cruz:

Allan Viera +1 to 78

Valles -3 to 80

 

America Mineiro:

Juninho +2 to 80

Roger +3 to 78

Matheusinho +3 to 78

Makton +3 to 73

Renato Bruno +2 to 75

Savio +1 to 78

Magrao -3 to 80

Dias -3 to 80

Cardoso -2 to 80

Looks like the Brazil review is done

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6 hours ago, Sir Rahul said:

88 it is

Looks like the Brazil review is done

Sir R There are so many "Nopes" in your list, SM must surely tidy these up soon & not wait for the next review? Otherwise it might be helpful to say which should be definitely kept & others where you can to some extent understand SM, be noted a "Sell"??

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25 minutes ago, Soccahappy said:

Sir R There are so many "Nopes" in your list, SM must surely tidy these up soon & not wait for the next review? Otherwise it might be helpful to say which should be definitely kept & others where you can to some extent understand SM, be noted a "Sell"??

Tbh it was tougher to predict for Brazil, because there are so many players, some with familiar names, which don't correlate to WhoScored data sometimes. So I may have made some mistakes, and couldn't be bothered to really check them out.

Another point is that sometimes I predict drops a bit too harshly, or maybe on a squad/league cap that I predicted. They've been generous/lenient with Brazil, so yeah. 

Lastly some of the small predictions could go either way, so not too bothered by that. My knowledge of Brazil isn't the best, I just tried my best. And also some predictions are for oldies, who obviously get shafted by SW usually, so.

When it comes to Europe (mainly top 5 + Champ and a few more other leagues), I trust my knowledge as I watch a bit of football and read a lot on Twitter etc. + stats/data are reliable + squad/league caps easily predictable. But other leagues, not so much. 

This post is made generally, just to let y'all know. 

PS- The previous Brazil review was in June 16. So if the next one is 10 months later or so, I'd sell most of the low-rated older Brazil guys, or the ones that've peaked. 

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Who do I sell and who do I keep from these young players? 

Siqueira JAILSON
Alex MUYL
Ferdi KADIOGLU
Sherel FLORANUS
Gonzalo ESCOBAR
Domingos QUINA
Vitor BUENO
Gelson MARTINS
Kelechi IHEANACHO
Gabriel BARBOSA
Bart RAMSELAAR
Mikel OYARZABAL
Tiquinho Soares
 Andrè ONANA
Franck KESSIE
Nico ELVEDI
Maxwell CORNET
Giovanni SIMEONE
Alban LAFONT
Kasper DOLBERG
Presnel KIMPEMBE
Manuel LOCATELLI
Cristian PULISIC
Dayot UPAMECANO
Marc ROCA
Alex BERENGUER
AAron CARICOL
Sofyan AMRABAT
Pierre ZEBLI
Emanuel CECCHiNI
Everton FELIPE
Belloli RAPHiNIA
Federico DI MARCO
Pol LIROLA
Tammy ABRAHAM
Sam MCQUEEN
Jonathan IKONè
Senna MIANGUE

 

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41 minutes ago, franpollo said:

Who do I sell and who do I keep from these young players? 

Siqueira JAILSON
Alex MUYL
Ferdi KADIOGLU
Sherel FLORANUS
Gonzalo ESCOBAR
Domingos QUINA
Vitor BUENO
Gelson MARTINS
Kelechi IHEANACHO

Gabriel BARBOSA
Bart RAMSELAAR
Mikel OYARZABAL

Tiquinho Soares
 Andrè ONANA
Franck KESSIE
Nico ELVEDI
Maxwell CORNET
Giovanni SIMEONE
Alban LAFONT
Kasper DOLBERG
Presnel KIMPEMBE
Manuel LOCATELLI
Cristian PULISIC
Dayot UPAMECANO
Marc ROCA

Alex BERENGUER
Aaron CARICOL

Sofyan AMRABAT
Pierre ZEBLI
Emanuel CECCHiNI
Everton FELIPE
Belloli RAPHiNIA
Federico DI MARCO
Pol LIROLA
Tammy ABRAHAM
Sam MCQUEEN

Jonathan IKONè
Senna MIANGUE

 

I'd keep most tbh

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4 hours ago, Sir Rahul said:

Tbh it was tougher to predict for Brazil, because there are so many players, some with familiar names, which don't correlate to WhoScored data sometimes. So I may have made some mistakes, and couldn't be bothered to really check them out.

Another point is that sometimes I predict drops a bit too harshly, or maybe on a squad/league cap that I predicted. They've been generous/lenient with Brazil, so yeah. 

Lastly some of the small predictions could go either way, so not too bothered by that. My knowledge of Brazil isn't the best, I just tried my best. And also some predictions are for oldies, who obviously get shafted by SW usually, so.

When it comes to Europe (mainly top 5 + Champ and a few more other leagues), I trust my knowledge as I watch a bit of football and read a lot on Twitter etc. + stats/data are reliable + squad/league caps easily predictable. But other leagues, not so much. 

This post is made generally, just to let y'all know. 

PS- The previous Brazil review was in June 16. So if the next one is 10 months later or so, I'd sell most of the low-rated older Brazil guys, or the ones that've peaked. 

that's fair enough, gives a good estimation Cheers

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On 4/20/2017 at 2:46 PM, Sir Rahul said:
On 4/20/2017 at 2:15 PM, Kev said:

Any thought on Matthew Knox at Livingston? He was attracting interest from some big clubs a few months ago.

Hardly played, he'll stay

He just got a +1 and is now worth half of what I payed for him! Excellent business!

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2 minutes ago, Sir Rahul said:

Hahaha good stuff

Didn't notice that, a rather pointless/insignificant update 

It is. But why the heck has his value dropped from 700k in January (I paid 710) to 360k now? His ability/profile can't have dropped in that time. He's still only 17 and there's been PL clubs interested. You don't see someone with a value of 20m getting a +1 and their value going down to 10m, which is pretty much the equivalent here. Better hope he gets more first team games or a move in the summer then!

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31 minutes ago, Kev said:

It has but until his rise in December Isak was only 200k. At least you've got a couple of million profit if you bought him early enough!

 

23-24yo donot fluctuate any longer. If you buy a player in the month after he turns 23yo, when he drops to his lowest value like every other 23-24yo, then he'll keep that exact value until the month after he turns 25yo. E.g. Bailly turned 23 this month, in a week he'll drop 2m (from 14m to 12m) and 2 years later another 2m (to 10m) if his rating doesn't change (if it does compare with the values of players level with his rating). From 27yo onwards a player's value drops constantly and less abruptly. If you like stability, stay away from the kiddies, if you don't mind a bit of "volitatlity" catch 'em all.

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1 hour ago, Kev said:

It has but until his rise in December Isak was only 200k. At least you've got a couple of million profit if you bought him early enough!

I keep saying on here SM do not like what scouts do ie buy & sell for profit. They have engineered the game for a number of years now, in various ways, so good managers make less & less profit & now lose money on some PLUS of course WAGES on top. Many managers have left the game in previous years. I think back & probably only 5% remain from when I first started & probably 25 to 40% have left in last 2 to 3years. I have 4 clubs left and at the height about 8 or 9. Starting to think I should get out altogether, even tho 2 of my remaining clubs have in excess of a £Billion each.

I've never known a business that actively works against it's customers the way SM does what with this & encouraging cheats instead of getting rid of them the way they should. Rant Over :mad: Soccahappy :) ish.......

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1 minute ago, liamgriff said:

Do ya reckon palmieri of Roma will get a rise? 

 

Edit, doesn't matter, just seen you had him down as emerson + 2 lol 

 

Out of him and D'ambrosio who would you keep? 

Should get +2 and a nationality change 

Here's a piece I did on him: http://www.asroma.com/en/news/2017/4/opinion-the-rise-and-rise-of-emerson-palmieri

Emerson, no doubt

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2 hours ago, 1000dB said:

 

23-24yo donot fluctuate any longer. If you buy a player in the month after he turns 23yo, when he drops to his lowest value like every other 23-24yo, then he'll keep that exact value until the month after he turns 25yo. E.g. Bailly turned 23 this month, in a week he'll drop 2m (from 14m to 12m) and 2 years later another 2m (to 10m) if his rating doesn't change (if it does compare with the values of players level with his rating). From 27yo onwards a player's value drops constantly and less abruptly. If you like stability, stay away from the kiddies, if you don't mind a bit of "volitatlity" catch 'em all.

Yeah I get that and it makes sense. But with regards to Matthew Knox - he was aged 17 when I bought him in January, rated 70 and worth 700k. Now he's still 17, rated 71 and worth half that, so it can't be an age thing and it also can't be because his rating has dropped. Plus a near 50% drop in value is a bit much either way! It would be like Bailly dropping to 7m from 14m!

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2 hours ago, Kev said:

Yeah I get that and it makes sense. But with regards to Matthew Knox - he was aged 17 when I bought him in January, rated 70 and worth 700k. Now he's still 17, rated 71 and worth half that, so it can't be an age thing and it also can't be because his rating has dropped. Plus a near 50% drop in value is a bit much either way! It would be like Bailly dropping to 7m from 14m!

 

5 hours ago, 1000dB said:

 

23-24yo donot fluctuate any longer. If you buy a player in the month after he turns 23yo, when he drops to his lowest value like every other 23-24yo, then he'll keep that exact value until the month after he turns 25yo. E.g. Bailly turned 23 this month, in a week he'll drop 2m (from 14m to 12m) and 2 years later another 2m (to 10m) if his rating doesn't change (if it does compare with the values of players level with his rating). From 27yo onwards a player's value drops constantly and less abruptly. If you like stability, stay away from the kiddies, if you don't mind a bit of "volitatlity" catch 'em all.

Yes this is true, but as Kev said this is NOT an age thing just SM reducing players values for their own reasons.

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5 hours ago, Kev said:

Yeah I get that and it makes sense. But with regards to Matthew Knox - he was aged 17 when I bought him in January, rated 70 and worth 700k. Now he's still 17, rated 71 and worth half that, so it can't be an age thing and it also can't be because his rating has dropped. Plus a near 50% drop in value is a bit much either way! It would be like Bailly dropping to 7m from 14m!

 

2 hours ago, Soccahappy said:

Yes this is true, but as Kev said this is NOT an age thing just SM reducing players values for their own reasons.

 

Maybe my post wasn't relevant enough but it was meant to be helpful though.

After the massive overhaul, took a big hit back then, I slowly stopped caring enough to figure the valuations out. A rough outline suffices for me. Also, I started getting rid of most minus 80 rated players, I only try to keep the very promising 80-85 rated ones and I mainly focus on 85-90 rated ones. E.g. V.Thill I bought a year ago for 30k and sold him after his Dec. rise just shy of 2m (he's now rated 75 and worth 1.4m). On others I had to take small losses but usually because they were bought/sold when I shouldn't have. Nothing close to the big hit I took during the overhaul though. I kept some 70-85 rated ones for s and giggles as it's a game (even if they aren't worth much it's fun to have them). However SM "forces" me to keep buying more expensive players as I have well over 2 billion in my account (2,147.4 is the max., anything more in my account vanishes). TBH it feels a bit like I'm Man Utd. Why care about wasting "money" when you're filthy rich.

 

ATM I can't really help you as I haven't been tracking the valuations closely (already explained why). Isn't it still based on the player's potential? The value also going up when a review is edging closer and deflating afterwards? 700k sounds quite steep for a 70 rated player. Angel Gomes is cheaper and I'd wait, most likely years, to buy him. T.Lato only recently reemerged on my radar as he has been getting into starting line-ups.

 

Bailly is bottom tier, can't drop below 12m (or to 7m like you said) unless his rating drops/enters a new age bracket, while in your example you could use Sane (24m) who could drop to 14m. Unlucky. I noticed Asensio recently dropped 4m, from 20m to 16m, and he's getting plenty of hype. Lucky for me as I need to blow some cash, wanted to buy him back anyway and TBH there's hardly anybody left that I can get my hands on (he probably won't rise before winter but hey-ho I'm filthy rich). Avoiding risk and buying kiddies at bottom tier values, where's the fun in that.

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3 minutes ago, 1000dB said:

 

 

Maybe my post wasn't relevant enough but it was meant to be helpful though.

After the massive overhaul, took a big hit back then, I slowly stopped caring enough to figure the valuations out. A rough outline suffices for me. Also, I started getting rid of most minus 80 rated players, I only try to keep the very promising 80-85 rated ones and I mainly focus on 85-90 rated ones. E.g. V.Thill I bought a year ago for 30k and sold him after his Dec. rise just shy of 2m (he's now rated 75 and worth 1.4m). On others I had to take small losses but usually because they were bought/sold when I shouldn't have. Nothing close to the big hit I took during the overhaul though. I kept some 70-85 rated ones for s and giggles as it's a game (even if they aren't worth much it's fun to have them). However SM "forces" me to keep buying more expensive players as I have well over 2 billion in my account (2,147.4 is the max., anything more in my account vanishes). TBH it feels a bit like I'm Man Utd. Why care about wasting "money" when you're filthy rich.

 

ATM I can't really help you as I haven't been tracking the valuations closely (already explained why). Isn't it still based on the player's potential? The value also going up when a review is edging closer and deflating afterwards? 700k sounds quite steep for a 70 rated player. Angel Gomes is cheaper and I'd wait, most likely years, to buy him. T.Lato only recently reemerged on my radar as he has been getting into starting line-ups.

 

Bailly is bottom tier, can't drop below 12m (or to 7m like you said) unless his rating drops/enters a new age bracket, while in your example you could use Sane (24m) who could drop to 14m. Unlucky. I noticed Asensio recently dropped 4m, from 20m to 16m, and he's getting plenty of hype. Lucky for me as I need to blow some cash, wanted to buy him back anyway and TBH there's hardly anybody left that I can get my hands on (he probably won't rise before winter but hey-ho I'm filthy rich). Avoiding risk and buying kiddies at bottom tier values, where's the fun in that.

Again that all makes sense. My reason for buying Knox was that he was attracting interest from some big PL teams earlier in the season (and might still be, I haven't checked), so if he gets a move and gets game time he could quickly rise. For only 700k it seemed like a risk worth taking. Mind you, it's for my Aberdeen team and there's no money in the Scottish league so it's still a fairly big amount for that side. But if he could possibly be mid 80s by the time he's 19 I'll probably be able to make a few million on him. You never know. I've bought Angel Gomes for a few of my teams, but like you say, it will probably be a few years before I can cash in or have a player for the starting 11 (same goes for Vincent Thill).

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