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Rahul W's rating predictions


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Hi all, As you have seen, I have not really been active over the past few months other than updating my preds. It's just been me phasing out of the forum. Now that the reviews are done, I can say

Just noticed this thread has crossed 1 million views, 23k odd replies, 930 pages.  I know this is 3 and a half years old but I never intended for this to monopolise the forum back then (I would h

Page 200- didn't think we'd get here when I started this casually- thanks all

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On 10/31/2018 at 11:26 AM, Soccahappy said:

 

I'll try to answer TL & MF:-

My spreadsheet (1000 players+)  has evolved over maybe 6/7years. It basically tries to predict how SM decides who gets rises and who doesn't.

So I kept records of minutes played as percentage of the possible minutes to be played & noticed how much a 90 rated player needed as opposed to a 70 rated player ( and every rating in between). It wasn't exactly 100% correct but it was close.

I then noticed that top clubs Real Madrid etc needed less minutes than say Huddersfield or even Everton (the Pecking Order) and I tried to simulate that too. This improved the predictions again but it is an evolving changing thing like Leicester might be near relegation 1 season & then Top the next, so it's variable by season to season.

I have had a lot of success with it & my 3 clubs now have around 1.8 billion each and hit the maximum around 2.1Billion most seasons at some time b4 I start buying again (251Max). SM miss a lot every review like I know this player should definitely get a rise and they miss him. It almost seems like SM do it purposely to make it harder for such as us to make money buying & selling.

Also minutes for players over 89/90 are less important than performances & winning titles, scoring goals, assists etc. I've recently started trying to add this to my spreadsheet in a small way but it is not as accurate as yet & might not be for years. The higher percentage in the last column is the final predictor about how safe it is, at this particular point in time but doesn't account for SM messing up or just missing some players altogether. Nothing is 100% but I try to improve each season....

I think such as Sir R & many others on here must work in a similar way, I'd be interested in their views but they may not be willing to share their secrets?????

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On 11/5/2018 at 11:38 AM, Soccahappy said:

Remember, when SM review players over 89 they take more and more account of how impressed they are with performance, goal tallies & national team appearances, compared to minutes. They must have minutes as well of course, but the guide/ spreadsheet is less the higher you go.

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Not particular high Safe ratings but suprised Icardi isn't in the black. Politano looking good tho. I just did this now in response to MF's post.

 

1 hour ago, Floodstreet2017 said:

Great to see loads of discussion etc but don’t think SM decide ratings on percentage of minutes on a spreadsheet etc. Usually just by judging players performances in the time period. There is no other magic formula etc. 

Knowledge is power..

I can partly agree with Floodstreet2017 as this is exactly what I have said myself about players 89/90 and above, see above highlighted. Knowledge is power I agree again. Stats are Power.

But surely u agree that SM need a yardstick for the rest, something they can rely on for the great majority of players? You say it's not minutes??

Also you can see what a difference it's made to one of my clubs in cash terms highlighted above.

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23 minutes ago, Soccahappy said:
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I can partly agree with Floodstreet2017 as this is exactly what I have said myself about players 89/90 and above, see above highlighted. Knowledge is power I agree again. Stats are Power.

But surely u agree that SM need a yardstick for the rest, something they can rely on for the great majority of players? You say it's not minutes??

Also you can see what a difference it's made to one of my clubs in cash terms highlighted above.

You're totally right mate. Obviously the majority or rating changes are totally stats-based. If anybody really thinks that SM have scouts all over the world, checking how each and every player is performing game by game, then they haven't yet realised how little they care about this game nowadays.

Like you say, naturally there are more factors than just apps/minutes etc that come in to play for the top end players but for the vast majority, it's the basic stats that make the big differences when it comes to ratings changes.

Keep doing what you're doing pal, sure there are loads of people in the forum who are finding your research very useful :)

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2 hours ago, Floodstreet2017 said:

Great to see loads of discussion etc but don’t think SM decide ratings on percentage of minutes on a spreadsheet etc. Usually just by judging players performances in the time period. There is no other magic formula etc. 

Knowledge is power..

Lol there'll always be one, from 88 and below minutes will be the deciding factor for who will rise a few goals and assists here in there will determine how high they rise, from 89 and above the focus will be more on the stats and performances/ strength of league and competition but having a spreadsheet compiled with years of data is probably more consistent than Sms system itself with their ratings being very often farcical 

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1 hour ago, Islelovesoccer said:

Any left or right backs due to rise from 88 or 89 in the next review? Thanks.

Kehrer (not sure he'll rise but great talent) and Akanji, they can play on the right.

On the left side, yeah, there aren't many young, promising players. I'd think about Telles, Grimaldo or Amavi if Shaw and Robertson aren't available.

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