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Rahul W's rating predictions


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Hi all, As you have seen, I have not really been active over the past few months other than updating my preds. It's just been me phasing out of the forum. Now that the reviews are done, I can say

Just noticed this thread has crossed 1 million views, 23k odd replies, 930 pages.  I know this is 3 and a half years old but I never intended for this to monopolise the forum back then (I would h

Page 200- didn't think we'd get here when I started this casually- thanks all

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7 hours ago, Gaelgoir said:

Don't worry about it. I was just checking if you had already completed it. Appreciate all your input in this thread.

Appreciate your comments Gaelgoir. Performances for players rated 89 & over are less of a guide than below 89 and that can be seen in these at Atletico. Really shows which Atletico players are playing more often and not how well. Interesting tho as it shows Lucas Hernandez who rested after WC and only appeared once for atletico, before 22 Sep. First game was on 20th of August thereby missing a lot of minutes.

Minutes

here

are

Only a guide

Performances

are Main

Factor

Mins

Guide

990

1080

91.67%

Saul

Atletico Mad

Spain

25.7%

10%

26.7%

650

1080

60.19%

Angel Correa

Atletico Mad

Spain

-2.9%

30%

0.1%

710

1080

65.74%

RodriHernandez

Atletico Mad

Spain

-12.3%

40%

-8.3%

547

1080

50.65%

LucasHernandez

Atletico Mad

Spain

-13.4%

30%

-10.4%

484

1080

44.81%

T Partey

Atletico Mad

Spain

-18.0%

30%

-15.0%

467

1080

43.24%

J Gimenez

Atletico Mad

Spain

-21.8%

20%

-19.8%

657

1080

60.83%

T Lemar

Atletico Mad

Spain

-22.3%

20%

-20.3%

430

1080

39.81%

S Savic

Atletico Mad

Spain

-24.9%

20%

-22.9%

Drat! Spent 10 minutes trying to get the above to paste. Sometimes it just doesn't do it for some reason & it's changed it from what u usually see on other posts. Tempremental!

 

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On 10/31/2018 at 11:26 AM, Soccahappy said:

 

I'll try to answer TL & MF:-

My spreadsheet (1000 players+)  has evolved over maybe 6/7years. It basically tries to predict how SM decides who gets rises and who doesn't.

So I kept records of minutes played as percentage of the possible minutes to be played & noticed how much a 90 rated player needed as opposed to a 70 rated player ( and every rating in between). It wasn't exactly 100% correct but it was close.

I then noticed that top clubs Real Madrid etc needed less minutes than say Huddersfield or even Everton (the Pecking Order) and I tried to simulate that too. This improved the predictions again but it is an evolving changing thing like Leicester might be near relegation 1 season & then Top the next, so it's variable by season to season.

I have had a lot of success with it & my 3 clubs now have around 1.8 billion each and hit the maximum around 2.1Billion most seasons at some time b4 I start buying again (251Max). SM miss a lot every review like I know this player should definitely get a rise and they miss him. It almost seems like SM do it purposely to make it harder for such as us to make money buying & selling.

Also minutes for players over 89/90 are less important than performances & winning titles, scoring goals, assists etc. I've recently started trying to add this to my spreadsheet in a small way but it is not as accurate as yet & might not be for years. The higher percentage in the last column is the final predictor about how safe it is, at this particular point in time but doesn't account for SM messing up or just missing some players altogether. Nothing is 100% but I try to improve each season....

I think such as Sir R & many others on here must work in a similar way, I'd be interested in their views but they may not be willing to share their secrets?????

 

6 minutes ago, Islelovesoccer said:

I keep seeing these charts but don't have a clue what they tell you other than how many minutes the players has played.

What do the last three % columns mean?

How safe?  How safe to rise, drop? 57.9% means what? MOST LIKELY TO RISE ie safest. Ignore the 2 columns before, it's just part of the spreadsheet working things out. I take a picture (I can't delete them)

If U read the first post it also gives an overall picture. But to try and answer your questions. My spreadsheet shows the last column as a percentage BUT ignore this as a % it's just a figure/ a rating and the highest figure at the top shows it's the most likeliest. If you chose the one at the bottom it would be the opposite. Hope this helps...

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3 hours ago, TMCosta said:

Aubameyang -2

I just wanna say: JONAS HECTOR

Hector was so lucky to hang on, when he chose to stay to stay at relegated Köln.

maybe it was he was a world champion regular for germany. But following germays 2018, (world cup and nations league), he will definitely drop next review. He has to. Question is when does Bundesliga2 get reviewed? end of season?

As a general rule players who play in 2nd tier go down to 86, with the odd few hanging on to 87, if they were say 89/90  rated when they dropped down a division. 

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1 hour ago, Soccahappy said:

Appreciate your comments Gaelgoir. Performances for players rated 89 & over are less of a guide than below 89 and that can be seen in these at Atletico. Really shows which Atletico players are playing more often and not how well. Interesting tho as it shows Lucas Hernandez who rested after WC and only appeared once for atletico, before 22 Sep. First game was on 20th of August thereby missing a lot of minutes.

Minutes

 

here

 

are

 

Only a guide

 

Performances

 

are Main

 

Factor

 

Mins

 

Guide

 

990

 

1080

 

91.67%

 

Saul

 

Atletico Mad

 

Spain

 

25.7%

 

10%

 

26.7%

 

650

 

1080

 

60.19%

 

Angel Correa

 

Atletico Mad

 

Spain

 

-2.9%

 

30%

 

0.1%

 

710

 

1080

 

65.74%

 

RodriHernandez

 

Atletico Mad

 

Spain

 

-12.3%

 

40%

 

-8.3%

 

547

 

1080

 

50.65%

 

LucasHernandez

 

Atletico Mad

 

Spain

 

-13.4%

 

30%

 

-10.4%

 

484

 

1080

 

44.81%

 

T Partey

 

Atletico Mad

 

Spain

 

-18.0%

 

30%

 

-15.0%

 

467

 

1080

 

43.24%

 

J Gimenez

 

Atletico Mad

 

Spain

 

-21.8%

 

20%

 

-19.8%

 

657

 

1080

 

60.83%

 

T Lemar

 

Atletico Mad

 

Spain

 

-22.3%

 

20%

 

-20.3%

 

430

 

1080

 

39.81%

 

S Savic

 

Atletico Mad

 

Spain

 

-24.9%

 

20%

 

-22.9%

 

Drat! Spent 10 minutes trying to get the above to paste. Sometimes it just doesn't do it for some reason & it's changed it from what u usually see on other posts. Tempremental!

 

Cheers man! Gent 

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1 hour ago, Sir Louis Cower said:

Even though they're not done with Mexico, a couple of Turkish players have been added to the DB today.

Yep u know it ;) im buying one

1 hour ago, jagerbob said:

Hector was so lucky to hang on, when he chose to stay to stay at relegated Köln.

maybe it was he was a world champion regular for germany. But following germays 2018, (world cup and nations league), he will definitely drop next review. He has to. Question is when does Bundesliga2 get reviewed? end of season?

As a general rule players who play in 2nd tier go down to 86, with the odd few hanging on to 87, if they were say 89/90  rated when they dropped down a division. 

Bundesliga2 already done

First player with 91 in a second division ever

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4 hours ago, TMCosta said:

Typical SM...downgrading a world champion (YEP) who plays every single minute in his team cause.....he had a bad season (or not...i think i trust more on whoscored than u and floodstreet LOL). Again...last year best rated CB on Premier League...this year second best player for Arsenal.

Can u understand this funny guy?

Mustaft was dropped from Germany because of his poor form for Arsenal. 

I am sure Yogi Low nearly changes his mind when he checked his who scored rating though 😂

yes he was part of Germany squad to win the World Cup over 4 years ago but he was at Valencia then. 

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34 minutes ago, Mickbor59 said:

Zielinski +1 or stay 90?

Partey +1 or stay 90?

Thank you

Both stay. Maybe zielinski by end of season 

28 minutes ago, Marek said:

Phil Jones -2 or -1?

Vietto stay or -1?

Both stay for now imo Jones definitely stay anyway

7 minutes ago, Middle_Finger said:

OGBONNA of West Ham or HECTOR MORENO of Real Sociedad?

Moreno the better player although neither likely to be long term investments. I would try and get Hermoso from Espanyol should get plus 2 (spain call up also) and will be around same price as above 

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8 minutes ago, Floodstreet2017 said:

 

Moreno the better player although neither likely to be long term investments. I would try and get Hermoso from Espanyol should get plus 2 (spain call up also) and will be around same price as above 

Dude the game world I am in even CR7s son is taken and he is not even in the database.

i would appreciate if you could make a choice between the 2. 

If it helps, I have Hector Moreno but sociedad were doing crap in la liga. Recently they picked up form. So I would like to take the 1 that will not drop this review.

 

cheers

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3 minutes ago, Middle_Finger said:

Dude the game world I am in even CR7s son is taken and he is not even in the database.

i would appreciate if you could make a choice between the 2. 

If it helps, I have Hector Moreno but sociedad were doing crap in la liga. Recently they picked up form. So I would like to take the 1 that will not drop this review.

 

cheers

Maybe if you had explained that in the first place haha

Is there any other alternatives? 

Personally would go for Hector. He should hold for now.

Ogbonna never really settled at West Ham and nailed down a regular spot.

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