Rahul W's rating predictions

[KERSPALT!]

I think Icardi would've been close to 93 had they made it out of the groups, very little chance now.

[KERSPALT!]

He won't get it in my opinion. Deserved it before but with Reals horrendous form and his injury I don't think he'll rise.

[hesselink]

I don't know what to do with Gabriel Jesus...

He is bad on SM, just 5 goals in 20 matches for City this season... But, he is just 21 - and i'm scared to trade him, who knows what future brings.

😫

[kratick]

Just now, hesselink said:

I don't know what to do with Gabriel Jesus...

He is bad on SM, just 5 goals in 20 matches for City this season... But, he is just 21 - and i'm scared to trade him, who knows what future brings.

😫

I had the same problem with Immobile. Fantastic in Serie A but really struggled in my team. Finally ended up trading him and realised it was a mistake. If you believe Jesus will get upgrades, keep him. Over many matches the goals will come.

[Middle_Finger]

.

[Soccahappy]

43 minutes ago, hesselink said:

I don't know what to do with Gabriel Jesus...

He is bad on SM, just 5 goals in 20 matches for City this season... But, he is just 21 - and i'm scared to trade him, who knows what future brings.

😫

I'm keeping him Hesselink. IMO yes he has lost his original flamboyance and become a little overawed with the players round him at the moment but this will pass. I'm confident he will mature into a great player and goal scorer for Man C in time. He's only 21.

Just one page of the German review results from my spreadsheet. French review Profit ended up at 119m and Germany very similar 121m.

 

 

[kratick]

Just now, Soccahappy said:

I'm keeping him Hesselink. IMO yes he has lost his original flamboyance and become a little overawed with the players round him at the moment but this will pass. I'm confident he will mature into a great player and goal scorer for Man C in time. He's only 21.

Just one page of the German review results from my spreadsheet. French review Profit ended up at 119m and Germany very similar 121m.

 

 

Hey @Soccahappy, Do you have a link to explain this spreadsheet? I can make some sense of it looking at it, but would like to understand how you calculate Safe and cap.

Also do you consider the wages while calculating profit? For example a 89 rated player costing 10M (ex Alcacer) has a wage of around 50K a week. So if i keep him for 26 weeks (half a year) I pay 1.3M in wages alone. If he goes to 90 his valuation would be 14M and the effective profit would be 2.7M (4-1.3). Also the longer I keep him before he rises the lesser the profit would be. And this number explodes for higher rated players.

[vitor_mfc]

11 minutes ago, kratick said:

Hey @Soccahappy, Do you have a link to explain this spreadsheet? I can make some sense of it looking at it, but would like to understand how you calculate Safe and cap.

Also do you consider the wages while calculating profit? For example a 89 rated player costing 10M (ex Alcacer) has a wage of around 50K a week. So if i keep him for 26 weeks (half a year) I pay 1.3M in wages alone. If he goes to 90 his valuation would be 14M and the effective profit would be 2.7M (4-1.3). Also the longer I keep him before he rises the lesser the profit would be. And this number explodes for higher rated players.

But don't forget that external clubs normally pay +- 15% over the minimum price, it takes care of the wages.

[vitor_mfc]

1 hour ago, hesselink said:

I don't know what to do with Gabriel Jesus...

He is bad on SM, just 5 goals in 20 matches for City this season... But, he is just 21 - and i'm scared to trade him, who knows what future brings.

😫

 

1 hour ago, kratick said:

I had the same problem with Immobile. Fantastic in Serie A but really struggled in my team. Finally ended up trading him and realised it was a mistake. If you believe Jesus will get upgrades, keep him. Over many matches the goals will come.

He was lucky to get 92, never mind a rating increase in near future,  he was not even on the level of the young forwards that got 92 last season (Mbappe, Sane, Sterling) and this season proves it.

[Damien1990]

1 hour ago, hesselink said:

I don't know what to do with Gabriel Jesus...

He is bad on SM, just 5 goals in 20 matches for City this season... But, he is just 21 - and i'm scared to trade him, who knows what future brings.

😫

Jesus was very lucky to get 92 last season. He is very young though so I'd keep and can see him possibly getting another undeserved rise in future. For me he's not on the level of Sterling or Sane yet.

[Mattheus]

Donarrumma it's 90? 100%?

Nicolo barella it's +1 ?

[hesselink]

I finished season with one player (Lvl 4 concerns)

Any chance to save him, if he starts every game next season? Or i'm losing the battle?

[Soccahappy]

On 10/30/2018 at 1:33 PM, Soccahappy said:

I was able to get on the computer today, so had a look at the chances of a rise for some of the Man City players purely based on minutes & a tiny-tiny bit for goals and assists.

The final column on the right of line 2 says for Laporte that he has 43.3% more minutes than he needs to get a +1. At the bottom I have shown exactly what that means e.g IF Laporte didn't play any more minutes and missed 690mins he could miss out on his rise. So as it stands he is the safest bet followed by the GK on 43% (But I'd warn that Sm miss out a lot of Gk's for some reason). Anyway it shows a safety margin, if you like. Sane looks like he will probably miss-out unless he ups his appearances between now and the Review (Mid November'ish). Hope it helps forumers....

I tried to Edit the above but it took both away so I'm stuck with 2.  Sorry Socca

Also Mahrez the 1620 minutes is wrong & should be 900 Making his safety number -2.1% ie close. Phew!! That'll do me for today at least....

 

On 10/31/2018 at 11:26 AM, Soccahappy said:

 

I'll try to answer TL & MF:-

My spreadsheet (1000 players+)  has evolved over maybe 6/7years. It basically tries to predict how SM decides who gets rises and who doesn't.

So I kept records of minutes played as percentage of the possible minutes to be played & noticed how much a 90 rated player needed as opposed to a 70 rated player ( and every rating in between). It wasn't exactly 100% correct but it was close.

I then noticed that top clubs Real Madrid etc needed less minutes than say Huddersfield or even Everton (the Pecking Order) and I tried to simulate that too. This improved the predictions again but it is an evolving changing thing like Leicester might be near relegation 1 season & then Top the next, so it's variable by season to season.

I have had a lot of success with it & my 3 clubs now have around 1.8 billion each and hit the maximum around 2.1Billion most seasons at some time b4 I start buying again (251Max). SM miss a lot every review like I know this player should definitely get a rise and they miss him. It almost seems like SM do it purposely to make it harder for such as us to make money buying & selling.

Also minutes for players over 89/90 are less important than performances & winning titles, scoring goals, assists etc. I've recently started trying to add this to my spreadsheet in a small way but it is not as accurate as yet & might not be for years. The higher percentage in the last column is the final predictor about how safe it is, at this particular point in time but doesn't account for SM messing up or just missing some players altogether. Nothing is 100% but I try to improve each season....

I think such as Sir R & many others on here must work in a similar way, I'd be interested in their views but they may not be willing to share their secrets?????

 

10 minutes ago, kratick said:

Hey @Soccahappy, Do you have a link to explain this spreadsheet? I can make some sense of it looking at it, but would like to understand how you calculate Safe and cap.

Also do you consider the wages while calculating profit? For example a 89 rated player costing 10M (ex Alcacer) has a wage of around 50K a week. So if i keep him for 26 weeks (half a year) I pay 1.3M in wages alone. If he goes to 90 his valuation would be 14M and the effective profit would be 2.7M (4-1.3). Also the longer I keep him before he rises the lesser the profit would be. And this number explodes for higher rated players.

Hi Kratick, Hope the above is helpful for you. Cap is easily explained, it is the highest rated player at any club (If he is 90 rated the Club cap is 90 rated UNTIL SM change it). It doesn't happen often but when SM increased Skhiri & Lecomt to 88 THIS review, they increased the Cap at Montpellier to 88)

Re Profit ... Wages rarely are a problem if you sell for a profit and don't keep them too long. E.g Lets look at Hakimi 3million profit and his wages are 280k for 10 weeks, 560k for 20weeks BUT when you sell 10M Hakimi for an 11M Bid you make an EXTRA PROFIT of 1M and Only if you keep him say appx 40weeks do you start making LESS than the 3m original profit. That's why I particularly like young expensive players. So really you can ignore wages. Higher rated players also bring in higher margins sometimes as much as 32m player bid 38m (6m profit). Hope that helps...

[kratick]

13 minutes ago, Soccahappy said:

 

 

Hi Kratick, Hope the above is helpful for you. Cap is easily explained, it is the highest rated player at any club (If he is 90 rated the Club cap is 90 rated UNTIL SM change it). It doesn't happen often but when SM increased Skhiri & Lecomt to 88 THIS review, they increased the Cap at Montpellier to 88)

Re Profit ... Wages rarely are a problem if you sell for a profit and don't keep them too long. E.g Lets look at Hakimi 3million profit and his wages are 280k for 10 weeks, 560k for 20weeks BUT when you sell 10M Hakimi for an 11M Bid you make an EXTRA PROFIT of 1M and Only if you keep him say appx 40weeks do you start making LESS than the 3m original profit. That's why I particularly like young expensive players. So really you can ignore wages. Higher rated players also bring in higher margins sometimes as much as 32m player bid 38m (6m profit). Hope that helps...

Wow. That's incredibly detailed analysis. You sir, are an inspiration. Thank you!

[Cam Lucas]

17 hours ago, Middle_Finger said:

Funny you mentioned this coz in one of the most popular English GW Usain Bolt got concern. Watch out for Odriozola

That same team has Bolt, and he is happy warming my bench XD

[MagnusCarlsen]

17 hours ago, Middle_Finger said:

In SM everything works. Try Alisson and Ederson together.

Exactly, really one big bunch of crap, the whole game. Most stupid ratings ever, and no development over last 5 years.

[Rahul W]

4 hours ago, DiamondCannon said:

Carvajal to still rise to 93?

probably not

4 hours ago, KERSPALT! said:

I think Icardi would've been close to 93 had they made it out of the groups, very little chance now.

yeah

3 hours ago, hesselink said:

I don't know what to do with Gabriel Jesus...

He is bad on SM, just 5 goals in 20 matches for City this season... But, he is just 21 - and i'm scared to trade him, who knows what future brings.

😫

92 was undeserved, but keep, still 21

1 hour ago, Mickbor59 said:

Donarrumma it's 90? 100%?

Nicolo barella it's +1 ?

maybe

1 hour ago, hesselink said:

I finished season with one player (Lvl 4 concerns)

Any chance to save him, if he starts every game next season? Or i'm losing the battle?

losing

[jlammy]

Oblak or Neuer + Thomas Muller? 

KDB or David Silva + Bale? 

[JAMancini]

37 minutes ago, jlammy said:

Oblak or Neuer + Thomas Muller? 

KDB or David Silva + Bale? 

Oblak

De Bruyne

[TMCosta]

3 hours ago, hesselink said:

I finished season with one player (Lvl 4 concerns)

Any chance to save him, if he starts every game next season? Or i'm losing the battle?

Was he playing already? I saw a lot of saves lately.

1 hour ago, jlammy said:

Oblak or Neuer + Thomas Muller? 

KDB or David Silva + Bale? 

Oblak

Duo

[thorgan lesar]

1 hour ago, jlammy said:

Oblak or Neuer + Thomas Muller? 

KDB or David Silva + Bale? 

Oblak

De Bruyne

[Jaachinma]

Hello guys.I've got a couple of questions to ask

First, What are your thoughts on Oxlade-Chamberlain,is a drop in sight?

Secondly, is Sevilla's Ben Yedder worth a buy?

Thanks for your anticipated thoughts

[nivea]

4 hours ago, hesselink said:

I finished season with one player (Lvl 4 concerns)

Any chance to save him, if he starts every game next season? Or i'm losing the battle?

I think maybe you can save him if he has already played some games at end of last season. Read about concern in help section and calculate how many games he needs to lower the concern level.

2 hours ago, jlammy said:

Oblak or Neuer + Thomas Muller? 

KDB or David Silva + Bale? 

Oblak

KDB

[nivea]

22 minutes ago, Jaachinma said:

Hello guys.I've got a couple of questions to ask

First, What are your thoughts on Oxlade-Chamberlain,is a drop in sight?

Secondly, is Sevilla's Ben Yedder worth a buy?

Thanks for your anticipated thoughts

I don't think ox will drop. Reus injured for long period and still maintained his rating for pretty long time. When ox is healthy, he performs well 

For ben yedder, actually depends on your team but generally I would say he is worth buying

[Alonso.]

Ruben Neves / Lucas Torreira?