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Rahul W's rating predictions


Rahul W

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13 minutes ago, ahatter1 said:

How long will Alex Lacazette of Arsenal hang on to his current 92 rating?

He's worth $22 million BUT I'm thinking of swapping him out for a more long-term alternative with greater potential (92+ obviously) from this available list:

Joao Felix, Federico Chiesa, Mikel Oyarzabal, Christian Pulisic, Gabriel Barbosa, Maxi Gomez, David Neres Rodrigo Bentacur, Tanguy Ndombele, Donny Van de Beek, Youri Tielmans, Lorenzo Pellegrini ... and any others you gentlemen of great knowledge feel I should consider ...

Cheers

The Mad Hatter

Good question! I think he'll keep it for a while, especially if Aubameyang leaves. One of those 92s that don't seem like they will rise or drop for the time being.

Felix has to start performing better at Atleti. Chiesa, Oyarzabal, Neres need moves to bigger clubs. Barbosa has to move back to a big club in Europe. Gomez has probably peaked at Valencia. 

Bentancur could get 92 in time at Juventus. Ndombele hasn't started off the best at Spurs so he is close to 90 than he is to 92. Tielemans doing well but Leicester is capped at max 91. Roma needs to do better for Pellegrini to rise.

Closest I'd say are: Pulisic (but we don't know how Werner arrival affects him, lot of comp for places) and van de Beek (needs move to say Madrid/United).

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On 6/16/2020 at 5:58 PM, Sir Rahul said:

https://www.besoccer.com/new/gabi-confirms-that-he-is-leaving-al-sadd-will-he-be-simeone-s-assistant-847330

Gabi is leaving Al Sadd. Looks like he'll be retiring then. If they weren't going to drop him from 90 then I guess retiring works.

They have updated his club in game to free agent. So a drop could be coming any time soon. 

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In the end, I got an extra message for today, so I can write again, but I'll try to condense all my replies in one message. :D

 

@Sir Rahul you are right, there is a bias towards attackers, and it's ok, but for example, Bustos played more than 1500' minutes, and he got a rise to 83, just the same as Gaich with a little bit more than 600' minutes. It's true, they play in different teams, but I don't see a big difference between Talleres and San Lorenzo this year. Another example, Urzi played more than 1400' for Banfield and got an 82, which is correct, since Banfield is a step down as a team.

 

@Kierans91 I agree, the 2m value before the change was a clear indication for a rise, but it's not showing how much he will get.

 

@BrodiePT probably it's true, the cap with Argentina national team was a factor, but I am more surprised about Herrera not getting enough, rather than Gaich getting too much. I predicted 83 for Herrera and 82 for Gaich, I would have understood 82 for both, but this 80-83 seems completely random to me.

About Bruno Pitton, honestly I don't know, since I focused on sub 24 players, but 83 is more or less what I would have expected.

 

And last but not least, @oronzodd you are right, too, he has great potential, a lot of teams want him, etc. But SM value shouldn't be based on potential and hype, but on actual performance, should it?

 

Saying that, I don't really care about these two players (except that I bought Herrera and he didn't rise enough :D😢). The point of this whole discussion for me is to understand how player changes work and make better predictions! :) 

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5 minutes ago, gyanthecat said:

 

@Kierans91 I agree, the 2m value before the change was a clear indication for a rise, but it's not showing how much he will get.

My thought process behind the 2 million was the hype, I just though 2 million was a bit excessive for him when he was rated 78.

Increase in value before the review obviously gives you a slight indication that the player will rise but I definitely thought he was a little over priced.

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14 minutes ago, gyanthecat said:

In the end, I got an extra message for today, so I can write again, but I'll try to condense all my replies in one message. :D

 

@Sir Rahul you are right, there is a bias towards attackers, and it's ok, but for example, Bustos played more than 1500' minutes, and he got a rise to 83, just the same as Gaich with a little bit more than 600' minutes. It's true, they play in different teams, but I don't see a big difference between Talleres and San Lorenzo this year. Another example, Urzi played more than 1400' for Banfield and got an 82, which is correct, since Banfield is a step down as a team.

 

@Kierans91 I agree, the 2m value before the change was a clear indication for a rise, but it's not showing how much he will get.

 

@BrodiePT probably it's true, the cap with Argentina national team was a factor, but I am more surprised about Herrera not getting enough, rather than Gaich getting too much. I predicted 83 for Herrera and 82 for Gaich, I would have understood 82 for both, but this 80-83 seems completely random to me.

 

And last but not least, @oronzodd you are right, too, he has great potential, a lot of teams want him, etc. But SM value shouldn't be based on potential and hype, but on actual performance, should it?

 

Saying that, I don't really care about these two players (except that I bought Herrera and he didn't rise enough :D😢). The point of this whole discussion for me is to understand how player changes work and make better predictions! :) 

I really enjoyed your Argentine list, Gyan! Predictions are not an exact science. It's best to never underestimate the impact of "potential and hype" that surrounds the odd-ball decisions regarding rises. Human soccer fans make these decisions, and we are not a rational group, by and large, (and I freely admit that I have so many broken legs from hopping on and off bandwagons over the years!) Better to "go with the flo" by allowing the heart-felt hype to enter into your calculations, and to not rely completely on the good science that tells you what "should be" in the SM world. I find it helps reduce frustrations and maintain sanity! Keep up the good work.

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1 hour ago, oronzodd said:

as you know there is plenty of clubs on the verge of bankrupt right now in europe and all over the world, they earn nothing and are paying for nothing, especially small clubs who doesn't have big TV contracts or sponsorship. how many clubs can pay those amount of money with the huge drop in income happened last season? can really san lorenzo afford to lose a huge earning opposing the move of his better prospect? i'm sure they will give up anyway because some of the Big Guy will make the classic "propose you can't refuse" and gaich will get another small rise during next summer as usual for SM in these cases, with another hype in the price. as for the gunners, bunch of youngsters now there, should bet on them and get rid of those unproductive old glories big wages, under a wise mental coach as arteta to come back to his greatness, but income will never be a problem for arsenal. my team is lecce, spent 11 m. to build the team last summer, now is fighting for relegation in serie A with a 25.000 average audience in the stadium every match in a city of only 100.000 people, how can we pretend to buy players worth 10 m. with an empty stadium and a poor TV share? my point is, in this time what push more in football is the passion of supporters or the money of the sponsors? will ever happen again to see, let's say a leicester winning the league? is it right to let football become a selected product for rich people living in the big cities?

Looks like my message limit has been lifted, so here goes my 3rd message for today! :D 

Oronzo, I totally agree with you. My team is one you would probably know, (it's the greatest and more glorious team in Puglia, so I won't mention its name :D :D ) but we are struggling in the lower leagues. Only money would eventually bring us back to Serie A one day, but we will never be able to compete with big teams with big money.

I don't know if there is a solution to this, but since when football became, as you wrote, a selected product for rich people, there is not a way back anymore. People who invested hundred of millions in this business will never accept to get back to a more romantic idea of this sport, with less money and less profit for them. Therefore, (their) money speaks louder... :( 

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5 minutes ago, ahatter1 said:

I really enjoyed your Argentine list, Gyan! Predictions are not an exact science. It's best to never underestimate the impact of "potential and hype" that surrounds the odd-ball decisions regarding rises. Human soccer fans make these decisions, and we are not a rational group, by and large, (and I freely admit that I have so many broken legs from hopping on and off bandwagons over the years!) Better to "go with the flo" by allowing the heart-felt hype to enter into your calculations, and to not rely completely on the good science that tells you what "should be" in the SM world. I find it helps reduce frustrations and maintain sanity! Keep up the good work.

Thank you so much for your words! 🤩

It was my first extensive prediction for a large number of players, so I still have to improve my maths behind it. Next time, I will surely take hype into account for my calculations. ;) 

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Looks like my message limit has been lifted, so here goes my 3rd message for today! :D 

@oronzodd, I totally agree with you. My team is one you would probably know, (it's the greatest and more glorious team in Puglia, so I won't mention its name :D :D ) but we are struggling in the lower leagues. Only money would eventually bring us back to Serie A one day, but we will never be able to compete with big teams with big money.

I don't know if there is a solution to this, but since when football became, as you wrote, a selected product for rich people, there is not a way back anymore. People who invested hundred of millions in this business will never accept to get back to a more romantic idea of this sport, with less money and less profit for them. Therefore, (their) money speaks louder... :( 

 
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18 minutes ago, criminala@live.com said:

Nkunku also gained 2 M in value the other day .
Means he is due a rise ?

16 M for a 88 player I think is way too expensive though ?

Yeah he should rise to 89.

Last I saw he was 12 million but I bought him when he was worth 10 million haha.

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13 minutes ago, Kierans91 said:

Premier league has been back for all of 45 minutes and there’s already controversy 😂

 

17B84E93-1DA5-47D4-836A-7E349A9764CB.jpeg
 

NO GOAL!

 

Someone said the ref's watch went off and said "goal" during the half time break!

And the referee's room said that yes in fact it was a goal. Surely this means they should have added the 1-0 scoreline for the 2nd half?

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13 minutes ago, Kierans91 said:

Premier league has been back for all of 45 minutes and there’s already controversy 😂

 

17B84E93-1DA5-47D4-836A-7E349A9764CB.jpeg
 

NO GOAL!

 

What a joke. Villa should have given Sheff Utd one back like Bielsa gave them last year.

Anyways - Keinan Davis seems good, 78 rated on the game, could get more gametime this season. 

In other news, Eric Garcia starting for City!

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5 minutes ago, Wave_Dweller said:

Someone said the ref's watch went off and said "goal" during the half time break!

And the referee's room said that yes in fact it was a goal. Surely this means they should have added the 1-0 scoreline for the 2nd half?

Interesting, you would think so.

3 minutes ago, Sir Rahul said:

What a joke. Villa should have given Sheff Utd one back like Bielsa gave them last year.

Anyways - Keinan Davis seems good, 78 rated on the game, could get more gametime this season. 

In other news, Eric Garcia starting for City!

Yes! It’s about time, sick of seeing Fernandinho play centre half for City 😂

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30 minutes ago, Arun said:

Is Ceballos a good enough player to put 12 mil for the future? Or should I diverse it into more cheaper and younger player?

Who should I not buy among Tyler Adams, Florentino Luis or Trincao?

Probably a cheaper player.

Luis and Trincao are the better of the 2 so I would say don’t buy Adams.

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1 hour ago, daproz said:

Young, possibly rising GKs for under a million?

Antosch the only one I know

1 hour ago, ahatter1 said:

whoa ... a very young arsenal starting eleven ...

Arsenal delivering as usual - thanks Luiz!

46 minutes ago, Arun said:

Is Ceballos a good enough player to put 12 mil for the future? Or should I diverse it into more cheaper and younger player?

Who should I not buy among Tyler Adams, Florentino Luis or Trincao?

Would prefer a cheaper player. Not good enough for Madrid, unlikely to stay at Arsenal.

I'd say Adams.

1 minute ago, Arun said:

Can anyone tell me how much game do I need to give my players who have Level 1,2,3 concerns.. Is there a certain percentage or just every game??

There is a percentage but I don't know it

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1 minute ago, Sir Rahul said:

Antosch the only one I know

Arsenal delivering as usual - thanks Luiz!

Would prefer a cheaper player. Not good enough for Madrid, unlikely to stay at Arsenal.

I'd say Adams.

There is a percentage but I don't know it

These things should be clarified in the FAQs to be honest... Why confuse the players...

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9 minutes ago, Sir Rahul said:

Antosch the only one I know

Arsenal delivering as usual - thanks Luiz!

Would prefer a cheaper player. Not good enough for Madrid, unlikely to stay at Arsenal.

I'd say Adams.

There is a percentage but I don't know it

Even more so now 😂

Concedes a penalty and gets sent off, Manchester City 2 - 0 David Luiz 😂

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