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Top 5 leagues - Post-Ratings-Analysis Nov/Dec 2010


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Post-Rating-Analysis

November 2010

What does this mean?

In this thread I want to present, compare and discuss the ratings after the changes in the top 5 leagues of Europe - probably the most interesting leagues for the SM community as the majority of high rated players play in these leagues.

Though this thread is in the "Player rating predictions" section, I don't want to make any predictions on how the players will do after the changes and if they are worth keeping - as this isn't the intention of my thread. Please ask these kind of questions in the respective predictions threads.

I rather want to show how SM rank the teams of Europe's top leagues rating wise (e.g. here you can see the current Uefa team ranking. I want to check if the ratings of SM reflect these kind of ranking or if there are any outliers up or down.

In order to compare the team average ratings I first needed to set a few essentials how to calculate the "average SM rating" of a team. One way would be to add up all individual player ratings and divide the result by the amount of players. However I think that the players rated lower than 80 have only a small impact to the team (especially after the changes) as they are mainly youth players who are already on the database. So I decided only to use the main players of each team and I decided that the rating-wise best 18 players of each team would be a good essential on how to calculate the "average team rating".

As SM has obvisiously finished reviewing the French Ligue 1, I will of course start with France.

120px-Flag_of_France.svg.png

Ligue 1

Average team rating

teamrating.jpg

We see that Lyon is the highest rated team in France with an average rating of 89.83 whilst the currently last in table Arles-Avignon is the team with the lowest average rating of 84.22

The total average rating of all Ligue 1 teams is 86.64.

Ratings compared to the current table

averageteamratingstats.jpg

In this image you can see the average ratings of the teams in order of the current table position and you can also see the regression line by which you can judge if a team is currently fair with it's ratings. So a team like Lyon seems to be very overrated. However this is certainly nonsense as the current league table is only a snapshot in time and ratings are based on longer periods of time. However if Lyon won't get better until the end of the season it's not unlikely to see some players drop. On the other hand teams like Stade Brenois or Montpellier seem currently to be very underrated. So if they'll keep this form, you can expect some risers there.

After all I realized that the current table stat is nice to view but not very convincing as ratings are made over a longer period of time. So I decided to add up the points that were collected by the teams in the seasons 2008/09, 2009/10 and in the current season and put the teams in that order.

(e.g. Lyon collected 22 points this season so far, 72 points in the season before and 71 points in the season 2008/09 => 22 + 72 + 71 = 165 points).

Points that were collected in the second league were halved.

examplep.jpg

Putting the teams with their current average rating in that order leads to a more convincing kind of table. I'll call it the

Ratings compared to the 3-years-table

teamrankingstats.jpg

Finally I want to present the

French team ranking

  1. Ol. Lyon (89.83)
  2. Marseille (89.00)
  3. Paris (88.56)
  4. Bordeaux (88.11)
  5. Lille (87.72)
  6. AS Monaco (87.28)
  7. AJ Auxerre (87.11)
  8. Rennes (86.67)
  9. AS Nancy (86.50)
  10. Lorient (86.44)
  11. Toulouse (86.44)
  12. St. Etienne (86.33)
  13. Montpellier (86.11)
  14. Valenciennes (86.11)
  15. OGC Nice (85.94)
  16. Sochaux (85.83)
  17. RC Lens (85.83)
  18. St. Brestois (84.56)
  19. SM Caen (84.28)
  20. Arles-Avignon (84.22)

teamrankingstats.jpg

As I'm no expert regarding the French league I can't really say much about the current average ratings and if they are ok. So I let the community judge about this.

As the rating changes in the big leagues go along I will post more of these stats for the respective leagues and will also add a ranking of all teams of the big leagues.

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Re: Top 5 leagues - Post-Ratings-Analysis Nov 2010

It looks nice' date=' but I'm not sure of it's purpose...[/quote']

Actually I currently don't really know the purpose either. :D

I think this is my main motive to make this thread:

I rather want to show how SM rank the teams of Europe's top leagues rating wise (e.g. here you can see the current Uefa team ranking. I want to check if the ratings of SM reflect these kind of ranking or if there are any outliers up or down.

I just want to know if there are teams that have a higher or lower rating than they actually should have according to good real life stats.

However I also know that ratings can't be judged purely on stats.

But I think some people will like this kind of preparation of SM stats. And especially when more leagues will have been reviewed this will be much more interesting as you can then compare teams from different leagues and if they're overall rating is fair.

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Re: Top 5 leagues - Post-Ratings-Analysis Nov 2010

ok i want to know if the average rate is the top 18 players' rate of the team or for all player. if the later' date=' those have too much young player would be lower rated.[/quote']

I only took the 18 best players because of the reason you mentioned.

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Re: Top 5 leagues - Post-Ratings-Analysis Nov 2010

I think this thread would make sense if you did a graph as you did for the first one (team averages) pre- and post- ratings changes. That way you could see how SM changes player ratings based on current form. I'm sure that because of the current changes, the underrating/overrating has been adjusted a bit (Lyon players dropped considerably, Rennes players rose etc.)

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Re: Top 5 leagues - Post-Ratings-Analysis Nov 2010

I think this thread would make sense if you did a graph as you did for the first one (team averages) pre- and post- ratings changes. That way you could see how SM changes player ratings based on current form. I'm sure that because of the current changes' date=' the underrating/overrating has been adjusted a bit (Lyon players dropped considerably, Rennes players rose etc.)[/quote']

I agree that this could be interesting.

However I don't believe that there would be huge differences. Teams like Stade Brestois would have had a good increase in their average rating and Lyon would have had a drop.

As I said:

My main intention was to compare the European top league teams on a fair level (which is best directly after the changes) to see if there are underrated and overrated teams. So currently this thread is not that interesting. Just wait ;)

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Re: Top 5 leagues - Post-Ratings-Analysis Nov 2010

Germany has now been reviewed. Here are the current average ratings.

120px-Flag_of_Germany.svg.png

1. Bundesliga

Average team rating

examplesu.jpg

The highest rated team in Germany is of course Bayern Munich with 91.28.

The lowest rated team is the 1. FC Kaiserslautern.

The total average rating of all Bundesliga teams is 87.11.

Ratings compared to the current table

averageteamratingstats.jpg

Well, this stat shows how strange the Bundesliga currently is doing. Teams that actually should be better like Wolfsburg, Stuttgart and Schalke are at the bottom of the table whilst teams like Mainz or Hannover that don't have the top quality players rating-wise are at the top of the table.

So again I added up the collected points of each team in the current season, the season 2009/2010 and the season 2008/2009. So we can see the most succesful teams in the past 3 seasons.

examplehy.jpg

Ratings compared to the 3-years-table

averageteamratingstats.jpg

In this stat you can clearly see that most of the teams are rated pretty fair according to their league performances. Only Borussia Dortmund is still very underrated.

German team ranking

  1. Bay. München (91.28)
  2. Hamburger SV (89.11)
  3. Bayer Leverkusen (89.06)
  4. VfL Wolfsburg (88.83)
  5. Werder Bremen (88.61)
  6. Bor. Dortmund (88.11)
  7. VfB Stuttgart (87.83)
  8. Schalke 04 (87.78)
  9. 1899 Hoffenheim (86.78)
  10. Eintr. Frankfurt (86.61)
  11. Mainz 05 (86.44)
  12. Bor. M'Gladbach (86.06)
  13. Hannover 96 (86.00)
  14. 1. FC Köln (85.72)
  15. SC Freiburg (85.67)
  16. Nürnberg (85.17)
  17. Kaiserslautern (84.72)
  18. St. Pauli (84.28)

Top 5 leagues team ranking (France & Germany so far)

  1. Bay. München (91.28)
  2. Ol. Lyon (89.83)
  3. Hamburger SV (89.11)
  4. Bayer Leverkusen (89.06)
  5. Marseille (89.00)
  6. VfL Wolfsburg (88.83)
  7. Werder Bremen (88.61)
  8. Paris (88.56)
  9. Bordeaux (88.11)
  10. Bor. Dortmund (88.11)
  11. VfB Stuttgart (87.83)
  12. Schalke 04 (87.78)
  13. Lille (87.72)
  14. AS Monaco (87.28)
  15. AJ Auxerre (87.11)
  16. 1899 Hoffenheim (86.78)
  17. Rennes (86.67)
  18. Eintr. Frankfurt (86.61)
  19. AS Nancy (86.50)
  20. Lorient (86.44)
  21. Toulouse (86.44)
  22. Mainz 05 (86.44)
  23. St. Etienne (86.33)
  24. Montpellier (86.11)
  25. Valenciennes (86.11)
  26. Bor. M'Gladbach (86.06)
  27. Hannover 96 (86.00)
  28. OGC Nice (85.94)
  29. Sochaux (85.83)
  30. RC Lens (85.83)
  31. 1. FC Köln (85.72)
  32. SC Freiburg (85.67)
  33. Nürnberg (85.17)
  34. Kaiserslautern (84.72)
  35. St. Brestois (84.56)
  36. SM Caen (84.28)
  37. St. Pauli (84.28)
  38. Arles-Avignon (84.22)

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Respuesta: Re: Top 5 leagues - Post-Ratings-Analysis Nov 2010

Thanks for the positive feedback (both here in the thread and via rep).

You want more' date=' you'll get more.

I'll post the Premier League data as soon as SM will have finished reviewing the league. :)[/quote']

Really like the way you do your own graphics and all the effort you put on this. :)

I have to say that I'm pretty impressed by the 3-years-table. SM are being accurate with his ratings if we don't count Dortmund and Lyon. :D

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Re: Respuesta: Re: Top 5 leagues - Post-Ratings-Analysis Nov 2010

I have to say that I'm pretty impressed by the 3-years-table. SM are being accurate with his ratings if we don't count Dortmund and Lyon. :D

I'm also a bit surprised about this. When I decided to use the 3-years-table I had no idea that SM's ratings are that accurate.

I'm curious on how Liverpool's standing will be in this 3-years-table and if SM really was too harsh to them (as a team of course as I don't compare any individual player ratings here).

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Respuesta: Re: Respuesta: Re: Top 5 leagues - Post-Ratings-Analysis Nov 2010

I'm also a bit surprised about this. When I decided to use the 3-years-table I had no idea that SM's ratings are that accurate.

I'm curious on how Liverpool's standing will be in this 3-years-table and if SM really was too harsh to them (as a team of course as I don't compare any individual player ratings here).

I think that they'll keep dropping and then they'll return to be a big team in England with lots of risers. :D

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Re: Top 5 leagues - Post-Ratings-Analysis Nov 2010

Premier League is done ...

120px-Flag_of_England.svg.png

Premier League

Average team rating

teamrating.jpg

Manchester United and Chelsea are the teams with the highest average ratings in the PL. The best 18 players of both teams have exactly the same summed up rating. Though Chelsea have more higher rated players, Manchester Utd have more depth in squad rating-wise.

The total average rating of all Premier League teams is 88.06.

Ratings compared to the current table

averageteamratingstats.jpg

Of course, I want to say again, that it's actually a bit pointless comparing the stats to the current table (especially after only 1/3 of the season played).

Nevertheless it's interesting to see how the teams with higher average ratings are struggling in the current season against teams with lower ratings.

Again I added up the collected points of each team in the current season, the season 2009/2010 and the season 2008/2009. (Points that were collected in the second league have been halved.)

So we can see the

Most succesful teams in the past 3 seasons

teamrating.jpg

Ratings compared to the 3-years-table

averageteamratingstats.jpg

I was a bit surprised after making the 3-years-table to see Liverpool still being that high. But after all they had a very good season 2008/2009 with becoming runners-up in the league. However I can fully understand why some of the higher rated Liverpool players dropped and as you can see in the graph it's not like they are underrated now.

Aston Villa on the other hand is rated very low according to their previous performances in the last years.

ManCity seem to be very overrated, but you shouldn't forget that ManCity have bought most of their players with already having a high rating. So most of the current City players weren't responsible for ManCity's previous performances.

English team ranking

teamrating.jpg

Top 5 leagues team ranking (France, Germany & England so far)

  1. Manchester Utd (91.83)
  2. Chelsea London (91.83)
  3. Bay. München (91.28)
  4. FC Arsenal London (90.72)
  5. Manchester City (90.50)
  6. FC Liverpool (90.33)
  7. Tottenham Hotspurs (90.00)
  8. Ol. Lyon (89.83)
  9. Hamburger SV (89.11)
  10. Bayer Leverkusen (89.06)
  11. Marseille (89.00)
  12. VfL Wolfsburg (88.83)
  13. FC Everton (88.83)
  14. Werder Bremen (88.61)
  15. Paris (88.56)
  16. Aston Villa (88.22)
  17. Bordeaux (88.11)
  18. Bor. Dortmund (88.11)
  19. VfB Stuttgart (87.83)
  20. Schalke 04 (87.78)
  21. Lille (87.72)
  22. FC Fulham (87.72)
  23. Sunderland (87.67)
  24. AS Monaco (87.28)
  25. AJ Auxerre (87.11)
  26. Stoke City (87.11)
  27. West Ham Utd (87.11)
  28. Birmingham City (87.06)
  29. Bolton Wanderers (86.89)
  30. Blackburn Rovers (86.83)
  31. 1899 Hoffenheim (86.78)
  32. Rennes (86.67)
  33. Eintr. Frankfurt (86.61)
  34. AS Nancy (86.50)
  35. Lorient (86.44)
  36. Toulouse (86.44)
  37. Mainz 05 (86.44)
  38. St. Etienne (86.33)
  39. Newcastle Utd (86.17)
  40. Montpellier (86.11)
  41. Valenciennes (86.11)
  42. West Bromwich (86.11)
  43. Bor. M'Gladbach (86.06)
  44. Hannover 96 (86.00)
  45. Wolverhampton (86.00)
  46. OGC Nice (85.94)
  47. Wigan Athletic (85.89)
  48. Sochaux (85.83)
  49. RC Lens (85.83)
  50. 1. FC Köln (85.72)
  51. SC Freiburg (85.67)
  52. Nürnberg (85.17)
  53. Kaiserslautern (84.72)
  54. St. Brestois (84.56)
  55. FC Blackpool (84.44)
  56. SM Caen (84.28)
  57. St. Pauli (84.28)
  58. Arles-Avignon (84.22)

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Re: Top 5 leagues - Post-Ratings-Analysis Nov/Dec 2010

I must admit I'm surprised Bayern's average rating is so close to Man Utd's and Chelsea's. I understand it's the top 18 players however. This may differ more when comparing the top 11 players from each side.

In fairness though the same could be said of Spurs' rating being higher than Lyon's. I find that surprising despite how poor Lyon have been recently, they are stalwards of the Champions League knock-out stages.

Good thread.

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Re: Top 5 leagues - Post-Ratings-Analysis Nov 2010

And the Serie A ...

120px-Flag_of_Italy.svg.png

Serie A

Average team rating

teamrating.jpg

Inter as current CL and league champion of course have the highest average rating with 92.17, followed by Milan with 91.17. The team with the worst average rating is Brescia Calcio with 84.67.

The total average rating of all Serie A teams is 87.77.

Ratings compared to the current table

teamrankingstats.jpg

Most succesful teams in the past 3 seasons

teamrating.jpg

Ratings compared to the 3-years-table

teamrankingstats.jpg

In this graph you can see that again the SM ratings are pretty fair. Only Palermo is underrated compared to the other teams in the league and maybe Fiorentina is a little bit overrated.

Italian team ranking

teamrating.jpg

Top 5 leagues team ranking (France, Germany, England & Italy so far)

  1. Inter Milan (92.17)
  2. Manchester Utd (91.83)
  3. Chelsea London (91.83)
  4. Bay. München (91.28)
  5. AC Milan (91.17)
  6. FC Arsenal London (90.72)
  7. AS Roma (90.72)
  8. Manchester City (90.50)
  9. FC Liverpool (90.33)
  10. Juventus Turin (90.22)
  11. Tottenham Hotspurs (90.00)
  12. Ol. Lyon (89.83)
  13. AC Fiorentina (89.39)
  14. Hamburger SV (89.11)
  15. Bayer Leverkusen (89.06)
  16. Marseille (89.00)
  17. VfL Wolfsburg (88.83)
  18. FC Everton (88.83)
  19. Werder Bremen (88.61)
  20. Genoa (88.61)
  21. Paris (88.56)
  22. Napoli (88.28)
  23. Aston Villa (88.22)
  24. Bordeaux (88.11)
  25. Bor. Dortmund (88.11)
  26. Lazio Roma (88.06)
  27. Sampdoria Genoa (87.89)
  28. VfB Stuttgart (87.83)
  29. Schalke 04 (87.78)
  30. Lille (87.72)
  31. FC Fulham (87.72)
  32. Udinese (87.72)
  33. Sunderland (87.67)
  34. Palermo (87.61)
  35. AS Monaco (87.28)
  36. AJ Auxerre (87.11)
  37. Stoke City (87.11)
  38. West Ham Utd (87.11)
  39. Birmingham City (87.06)
  40. FC Parma (87.00)
  41. Bolton Wanderers (86.89)
  42. Blackburn Rovers (86.83)
  43. Catania Calcio (86.83)
  44. 1899 Hoffenheim (86.78)
  45. Rennes (86.67)
  46. Eintr. Frankfurt (86.61)
  47. Cagliari Calcio (86.56)
  48. AS Nancy (86.50)
  49. Chievo Verona (86.50)
  50. Lorient (86.44)
  51. Toulouse (86.44)
  52. Mainz 05 (86.44)
  53. St. Etienne (86.33)
  54. Newcastle Utd (86.17)
  55. Montpellier (86.11)
  56. Valenciennes (86.11)
  57. West Bromwich (86.11)
  58. Bor. M'Gladbach (86.06)
  59. Hannover 96 (86.00)
  60. Wolverhampton (86.00)
  61. AS Bari (86.00)
  62. OGC Nice (85.94)
  63. Wigan Athletic (85.89)
  64. Sochaux (85.83)
  65. RC Lens (85.83)
  66. FC Bologna (85.78)
  67. 1. FC Köln (85.72)
  68. SC Freiburg (85.67)
  69. Nürnberg (85.17)
  70. AC Cesena (85.17)
  71. US Lecce (85.00)
  72. Kaiserslautern (84.72)
  73. Brescia Calcio (84.67)
  74. St. Brestois (84.56)
  75. FC Blackpool (84.44)
  76. SM Caen (84.28)
  77. St. Pauli (84.28)
  78. Arles-Avignon (84.22)

Here I'm a bit surprised by the high ratings of some Italian teams.

Inter won the CL so they surely deserve to be high rated but I never expected them being rated higher than Chelsea and Manchester United. Furthermore Milan higher rated than Arsenal and AS Roma rated the same as Arsenal surprised me really. I personally would rate Arsenal stronger than both Milan and Roma.

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Re: Top 5 leagues - Post-Ratings-Analysis Nov/Dec 2010

The ratings for Italy are a bit strange. If we look at the latest european results Italy is doing quite badly except for last year's Inter.

In 2010 Italy had one team in the quarterfinales (8 teams) of the CL

In 2009 Italy had none in there

In 2008 Italy lost Roma in the QF which was the last team

Europa league is similar:

In 2010 no teams in the QF

In 2009 Udinese was defeated as the last italian team

In 2008 Fiorentina was the last italian team in the competition

The results for Italy in the past few years were bad. But still teams like Sampdoria, Juve, Napoli, Roma, Lazio and so on have very high ratings in SM compared to teams in other leagues that were more successful. My personal feeling is that especially the english teams are a bit underrated in SM.

Really looking forward to seeing the spanish ratings in there.

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Re: Top 5 leagues - Post-Ratings-Analysis Nov 2010

And finally La Liga

120px-Flag_of_Spain.svg.png

Primera División

Average team rating

teamrating.jpg

Of course Barca and Real are the teams with the highest ratings in Spain. Then you can see one of the main problems of the Primera Division IMO - Sevilla as the third best team has a difference in its average rating compared to Real of more than 3 points!

The total average rating of the Primera Division teams is 87.67.

Ratings compared to the current table

teamrankingstats.jpg

Most succesful teams in the past 3 seasons

teamrating.jpg

Here you can see that Barcelona and Real deserve the higher rating according to the collected league points in the current and the past 2 seasons. Both have collected above 50 points more than the third most successful team Valencia.

Ratings compared to the 3-years-table

teamrankingstats.jpg

And because of this high gap between Barcelona/Real and the rest of the league, the line of best fit doesn't really fit here. As I certainly won't argue now that Barcelona and Real are overrated in La Liga. They may be overrated - but this we only may see when I compare the European top teams later. So for now I also want to show you this graph without Barca and Real.

teamrankingstats.jpg

Now you can see that Sevilla & Athletico are slightly overrated whilst Mallorca is underrated according to the league performances.

Spanish team ranking

teamrating.jpg

Top 5 leagues team ranking

  1. FC Barcelona (93.06)
  2. Real Madrid (92.83)
  3. Inter Milan (92.17)
  4. Manchester Utd (91.83)
  5. Chelsea London (91.83)
  6. Bay. München (91.28)
  7. AC Milan (91.17)
  8. FC Arsenal London (90.72)
  9. AS Roma (90.72)
  10. Manchester City (90.50)
  11. FC Liverpool (90.33)
  12. Juventus Turin (90.22)
  13. Tottenham Hotspurs (90.00)
  14. Ol. Lyon (89.83)
  15. FC Sevilla (89.67)
  16. AC Fiorentina (89.39)
  17. Athletico Madrid (89.33)
  18. Hamburger SV (89.11)
  19. Bayer Leverkusen (89.06)
  20. Marseille (89.00)
  21. FC Valencia (89.00)
  22. VfL Wolfsburg (88.83)
  23. FC Everton (88.83)
  24. Werder Bremen (88.61)
  25. Genoa (88.61)
  26. Paris (88.56)
  27. Villareal (88.44)
  28. Napoli (88.28)
  29. Aston Villa (88.22)
  30. Bordeaux (88.11)
  31. Bor. Dortmund (88.11)
  32. Lazio Roma (88.06)
  33. Sampdoria Genoa (87.89)
  34. VfB Stuttgart (87.83)
  35. Schalke 04 (87.78)
  36. Lille (87.72)
  37. FC Fulham (87.72)
  38. Udinese (87.72)
  39. Sunderland (87.67)
  40. Palermo (87.61)
  41. Athletic Bilbao (87.33)
  42. AS Monaco (87.28)
  43. FC Getafe (87.28)
  44. AJ Auxerre (87.11)
  45. Stoke City (87.11)
  46. West Ham Utd (87.11)
  47. Birmingham City (87.06)
  48. FC Parma (87.00)
  49. Deportivo La Coruna (86.94)
  50. CA Osasuna (86.94)
  51. Bolton Wanderers (86.89)
  52. Espanyol Barcelona (86.89)
  53. Blackburn Rovers (86.83)
  54. Catania Calcio (86.83)
  55. 1899 Hoffenheim (86.78)
  56. RCD Mallorca (86.78)
  57. Racing Santander (86.72)
  58. Rennes (86.67)
  59. Eintr. Frankfurt (86.61)
  60. UD Almeria (86.61)
  61. Cagliari Calcio (86.56)
  62. AS Nancy (86.50)
  63. Chievo Verona (86.50)
  64. Lorient (86.44)
  65. Toulouse (86.44)
  66. Mainz 05 (86.44)
  67. Sporting Gijon (86.44)
  68. St. Etienne (86.33)
  69. Zaragoza (86.33)
  70. Malaga (86.22)
  71. Hercules Alicante (86.22)
  72. Newcastle Utd (86.17)
  73. Montpellier (86.11)
  74. Valenciennes (86.11)
  75. West Bromwich (86.11)
  76. Bor. M'Gladbach (86.06)
  77. Hannover 96 (86.00)
  78. Wolverhampton (86.00)
  79. AS Bari (86.00)
  80. OGC Nice (85.94)
  81. Wigan Athletic (85.89)
  82. Sochaux (85.83)
  83. RC Lens (85.83)
  84. FC Bologna (85.78)
  85. 1. FC Köln (85.72)
  86. SC Freiburg (85.67)
  87. Real Sociedad (85.28)
  88. Nürnberg (85.17)
  89. AC Cesena (85.17)
  90. UD Levante (85.11)
  91. US Lecce (85.00)
  92. Kaiserslautern (84.72)
  93. Brescia Calcio (84.67)
  94. St. Brestois (84.56)
  95. FC Blackpool (84.44)
  96. SM Caen (84.28)
  97. St. Pauli (84.28)
  98. Arles-Avignon (84.22)

Here you see that Real according to their previous achievements is totally overrated.

However I will make a summary of all leagues later in which I will compare the teams with further graphs.

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