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Radebe20

£10 > £20,000 - Sports betting.

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Re: £10 > £20,000 - Sports betting.

Sounds fun though my lack of expendable money and testicles means I'll drop out well before £20k :P

Got on the first of Tom's suggestions then missed out yesterday so the luck seems to be with me :D Few disadvantages as I started with what was in my account (£8.17 I think) and am on Will Hill which has worse odds (I'm a very casual gambler and like the Will Hill interface).

Today I've put my £8.99 on Wrexham vs Darlington to have under 4.5 goals at 1/10 which will hopefully take my balance up to £9.88 :)

Finished 2-1 to Wrexham :)

Been doing some quick calculations as I'm a massive nerd...

First, the 1/10 odds. Talking pure probability, this equates to a 10 in 11 chance of being correct as if you bet £10 on 11 games, winning the bet 10 times and losing once, you'd end up with your starting balance of £10. Now in reality, the bookies will swing this in their favour slightly but we'll assume the best case scenario above.

Now the bets can be taken as having Binomial probability; you either win or you lose. Time for some quick maths :) The Binomial distribution is: B~(n,p) so it has two parameters: n is the number of of events (in our case 80) and p is the probability of the event occurring (from above; 10/11).

The Binomial distribution gives the equation: (n!/k!(n-k)!)(p^k)((1-p)^(n-k)) where k is the number of desired outcomes and we need all 80. So substituting in we have: (80!/80!0!)((10/11)^80)((1/11)^0) which simplifies to: (10/11)^80 which equals 0.0004882. Equating this to a percentage gives us a 0.04882% chance of prevailing in this scheme.

That means that 1 in 2048.4 attempts will theoretically result in success. Unfortunately, if you're paying £10 each time, £20,484 > £20,000 so the odds are in the bookie's favour :(

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Re: £10 > £20,000 - Sports betting.

Finished 2-1 to Wrexham :)

Been doing some quick calculations as I'm a massive nerd...

First' date=' the 1/10 odds. Talking pure probability, this equates to a 10 in 11 chance of being correct as if you bet £10 on 11 games, winning the bet 10 times and losing once, you'd end up with your starting balance of £10. Now in reality, the bookies will swing this in their favour slightly but we'll assume the best case scenario above.

Now the bets can be taken as having Binomial probability; you either win or you lose. Time for some quick maths :) The Binomial distribution is: B~(n,p) so it has two parameters: n is the number of of events (in our case 80) and p is the probability of the event occurring (from above; 10/11).

The Binomial distribution gives the equation: (n!/k!(n-k)!)(p^k)((1-p)^(n-k)) where k is the number of desired outcomes and we need all 80. So substituting in we have: (80!/80!0!)((10/11)^80)((1/11)^0) which simplifies to: (10/11)^80 which equals 0.0004882. Equating this to a percentage gives us a 0.04882% chance of prevailing in this scheme.

That means that 1 in 2048.4 attempts will theoretically result in success. Unfortunately, if you're paying £10 each time, £20,484 > £20,000 so the odds are in the bookie's favour :([/quote']

Ouch, A-Level maths just came screaming back at me...!

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Re: £10 > £20,000 - Sports betting.

Finished 2-1 to Wrexham :)

Been doing some quick calculations as I'm a massive nerd...

First' date=' the 1/10 odds. Talking pure probability, this equates to a 10 in 11 chance of being correct as if you bet £10 on 11 games, winning the bet 10 times and losing once, you'd end up with your starting balance of £10. Now in reality, the bookies will swing this in their favour slightly but we'll assume the best case scenario above.

Now the bets can be taken as having Binomial probability; you either win or you lose. Time for some quick maths :) The Binomial distribution is: B~(n,p) so it has two parameters: n is the number of of events (in our case 80) and p is the probability of the event occurring (from above; 10/11).

The Binomial distribution gives the equation: (n!/k!(n-k)!)(p^k)((1-p)^(n-k)) where k is the number of desired outcomes and we need all 80. So substituting in we have: (80!/80!0!)((10/11)^80)((1/11)^0) which simplifies to: (10/11)^80 which equals 0.0004882. Equating this to a percentage gives us a 0.04882% chance of prevailing in this scheme.

That means that 1 in 2048.4 attempts will theoretically result in success. Unfortunately, if you're paying £10 each time, £20,484 > £20,000 so the odds are in the bookie's favour :([/quote']

If you backed 80 consecutive 1/10's the figure you would come out with is in fact £20,484 and not £20k. So you'd break even if you managed it on your last attempt. But thats the gamble, your gambling on the fact you'll succesfully do this before the 2048th attempt.

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Re: £10 > £20,000 - Sports betting.

If you backed 80 consecutive 1/10's the figure you would come out with is in fact £20' date='484 and not £20k. So you'd break even if you managed it on your last attempt. But thats the gamble, your gambling on the fact you'll succesfully do this before the 2048th attempt.[/quote']

Ah, fair :) In reality, 1/10 events won't have a probability of 10 in 11 though.

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Re: £10 > £20,000 - Sports betting.

Ah' date=' fair :) In reality, 1/10 events won't have a probability of 10 in 11 though.[/quote']

See the football betting thread and you shall see your theory is what happened with me, I started with £100, made 10 successfull bets winning all of them and lost my 11th bet :o

So there is some logic in what you wrote :P

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Re: £10 > £20,000 - Sports betting.

Attempt 2 - Bet 1

1 Kristyna Pliskova (Svr) to win 14th game Tereza Martincova v Kristyna Pliskova

(Next Game) 01/12/2011 None 2/11 To Run

Stake: 10.00 To Win: 1.82

Bet won :D Will try same again...

Attempt 2 - Bet 2

1 Kristyna Pliskova (Svr) to win 16th game Tereza Martincova v Kristyna Pliskova

(Next Game) 01/12/2011 None 2/11 To Run

Stake: 11.81 To Win: 2.15

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Re: £10 > £20,000 - Sports betting.

Attempt 2 - Bet 2

1 Kristyna Pliskova (Svr) to win 16th game Tereza Martincova v Kristyna Pliskova

(Next Game) 01/12/2011 None 2/11 To Run

Stake: 11.81 To Win: 2.15

Bet won :D aaaannnnd again...

1 Kristyna Pliskova (Svr) to win 18th game Tereza Martincova v Kristyna Pliskova

(Next Game) 01/12/2011 None 1/6 To Run

Stake: 13.96 To Win: 2.33

Attempt 2 - Bet 3

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Re: £10 > £20,000 - Sports betting.

Bet won :D aaaannnnd again...

1 Kristyna Pliskova (Svr) to win 18th game Tereza Martincova v Kristyna Pliskova

(Next Game) 01/12/2011 None 1/6 To Run

Stake: 13.96 To Win: 2.33

Attempt 2 - Bet 3

Ugghhhhh Pliskova loses 2 match points and goes on to lose the game. Will start again!!!

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Re: £10 > £20,000 - Sports betting.

Ugghhhhh Pliskova loses 2 match points and goes on to lose the game. Will start again!!!

Keep this up Tom and you might just go and prove Stuart's maths to be correct! :P

Might have a bash at this tonight. Surely I can get further than you have so far!

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Re: £10 > £20,000 - Sports betting.

sometimes you see something on the forum that is just so daft that you have to give it a try.cant see me having the balls to keep going past 400/500 so will give it a bash this weekend.2 bets a day but will try to keep it at 1/7 or 1/8 to speed it up.bet 365 have an odds on section where they give all the so called certainties so will use them.Last time i put decent money on a 1/10 shot,they got beat.put 300 quid on the rams to beat the patriots when i opened an account so i could get a free 300 bet and they got stuffed at the death.

have you all been using betting in running or studying any form or is it the shut your eyes and point at the screen method?

let you know how i get on

cheers

tony

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Re: £10 > £20,000 - Sports betting.

col lufc #

Attempt 1

Bet 1

£10.00 to win £4.40 lost

Attempt 2

Bet 1

£10.00 to win £3.64 won

Bet 2

£13.64 to win £3.90 won

Bet 3

£17.54 to win £5.26 won

Bet 4

£22.81 to win £5.07 won

Radebe20

Attempt 1

Bet 1

£10.00 to win £1.00 won

Bet 2

£11.00 to win £1.83 lost

Attempt 2

Bet 1

£10.00 to win £1.82 won

Bet 2

£11.81 to win £2.15 won

Bet 3

£13.96 to win £2.33 lost

Kyle14

Attempt 1

Bet 1

£10.00 to win £1.11 won

Bet 2

??????????:eek: won or lost ?

Bet 3

£12.71 to win £1.41 won

sirmarkhughes

Attempt 1

Bet 1

£8.32 to win £2.87 lost

Stuart H

Attempt 1

Bet 1

after posting :(:Dwon

Bet 2

£8.99 to win £0.89 won

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Re: £10 > £20,000 - Sports betting.

See the football betting thread and you shall see your theory is what happened with me' date=' I started with £100, made 10 successfull bets winning all of them and lost my 11th bet :o

So there is some logic in what you wrote :P[/quote']

Which is why bookies still exist! :D

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